tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62985683501909821302024-03-15T04:57:32.616+00:00Irish Energy BlogOne of the most popular energy and economic blogs in IrelandIrish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.comBlogger455125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-80690014662861177032022-12-24T20:13:00.002+00:002022-12-25T13:29:00.580+00:00Some Christmas Reading<p>Pat Swords has written a new book, available to download from the link here :</p><p><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/13458-State-aid-exemptions-for-small-amounts-of-aid-de-minimis-aid-update-/F3320051_en">Feedback from: Pat Swords (europa.eu)</a> </p><p>Having lived and worked in many places that have been in the headlines in recent times such as Ukraine, Sweden and Libya, Pat is in a unique position to explain events that have unfolded in recent times. </p><p>"Colonel John Boyd of the United States Air Force (USAF), who as a jet fighter pilot
in Korean and Vietnam eras, had also a standing bet as an instructor pilot, that
beginning from a position of disadvantage in air combat manoeuvring, in less than 40
seconds, he could defeat any opposing pilot. He also invented the OODA loop, which
is not as one would expect, about twisting a fighter aircraft into some contortionist
position, but rather stands for a strategy of ‘Observe – Orient – Decide – Act’.
Namely, prior to making a decision (the decide phase), the person will first have to
get information (observe) and determine what it means to him and what he can do
about it (orient). Which in turn leads to the good summary of, fail to ‘observe’ (get the
information), prepare to fail.
Jim Glennon, who served seven years in the Oireachtas as a TD (Member of the Irish
Parliament) and Senator before retiring in 2007, wrote in the Irish Times on the 1
April 2010: </p><p><br></p><p><i></i></p><blockquote><p><i>“Most voters are, somewhat naively, of the view that government policy is
developed through a process of careful analysis, comprehensive consultation,
and the selection and prioritisation of initiatives based on impact and
thorough cost-benefit analysis. In reality, most government policy-making is based on an ad-hoc reaction to
events / media-pressure, and driven by the responsible Minister’s particular
requirement to be seen to announce something which seems at least semi-sensible. Regrettably, policy-making which is focused solely on addressing tactical
issues inevitably leads to strategic mistakes. Many of the problems now being
faced by the Government are the result of ad-hoc fixes of problems during the
boom – got a problem, create an agency, buy-off the unions, get it off the front
page”. </i></p><p></p></blockquote><p><br></p><p>You would think that they would learn from this and put in a more effective strategy,
such as a few OODA loops.</p><p><br></p><p>As hindsight is not foresight, there are always decisions with results, which don’t
match the prior hypothesis. However, does that mean we should hand over our
decision-making to those designated for us as ‘experts’, particular so when it is us,
who rightly or wrongly, bear the consequences? This is a very fundamental question.
For example, there was quite a mess left behind the Iron Curtain by the planned
economy, even though its superiority was taught and eulogised by the local economic
professors, before they themselves saw the light and re-educated themselves, when
the wall fell down. Making people clean up the mess they leave behind is always
difficult, because it seems nobody is responsible, as all are responsible, even though it
was only nobody and his buddies, who got to make the decisions,
Hence, the conclusion of the ‘five whys’ analysis, was that pretty strong checks and
balances must be put in place, to control nobody and his buddies, by all the rest.
Which in legal terms led to the adoption of the UNECE Aarhus Convention on the
premise that the environment is important and does not belong to the State, but to the
people, and as political ideologies come and go, the people must be provided with
robust procedural rights in relation to environmental decision-making".</p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-19643034546039329532022-11-02T05:23:00.009+00:002022-11-02T05:40:01.253+00:00Energy Crisis - Part Two Electricity Bills<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Three ways Electricity bills could be made more affordable:</span></h3><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">1) Most wind farms in Ireland are (hypocritically) profiting from the current higher gas prices (Weren't renewables supposed to do away with expensive dirty fossil fuels?). When gas prices were low in 2014 and 2015, wind farms were getting the gas price plus a top up to a fixed price. Now </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">when gas prices are far exceeding this fixed price, they are receiving the massive surplus.</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">So it is a lose - lose situation for the consumer. It is an arrangement that is indicative of the parasitic nature of wind energy which can only be accommodated in a grid dominated by fossil fuel or hydro generation. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">This win-win arrangement for wind energy could be reversed so that wind farms only receive the fixed price originally intended or if that is not legally possible, the excess profits taxed at a special rate and handed back to the consumer in the form of reduced electricity bills.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">2) <u>Time to pass on those savings</u> - when gas prices were low in 2014/15, hardly any of the fall in prices was passed on to consumers. See the following newspaper articles :</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-variant-ligatures: no-contextual;">2015 - "<i>most firms are dragging their heels in passing on recent falls in wholesale gas and electricity prices to consumers".</i></span></p><p><a href="https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/switching-saturday/make-some-electric-savings-by-changing-energy-supplier-30970529.html"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Make some electric savings by changing energy supplier - Independent.ie</span></a></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: no-contextual; margin-bottom: var(--sy); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding: 0px; transition-property: var(--t8n_p1);"><div class="slot1" data-ad-slot="" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; flex-grow: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition-property: var(--t8n_p1);"></div></div><p></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: georgia;">2015 - "<span style="color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: no-contextual;">Irish consumers pay the fourth-highest energy bills in Europe, according to EU statistics.<span> </span><b>Little of the large recent falls in wholesale gas and oil prices have been passed on to consumers".</b></span></span></i></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: no-contextual;"><b><br /></b></span></span></i></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white;"><a href="https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/airtricity-was-paid-32m-to-run-power-station-for-just-50-hours-30992601.html"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Airtricity was paid €32m to run power station for just 50 hours - Independent.ie</span></a></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Not for the first time in Ireland, a Regulator failed to do their job. Pressure could be put on the energy companies to pass on that saving now, in particular, ESB which is semi state. Failing that, a special tax could be introduced which would be based on the pro rata decrease in gas prices over that period seven years ago. So if gas prices fell by 20% over one year back then, then corporate taxes on energy companies could be increased from 12.5% to 15% with the additional taxes passed on to consumers of course. This would provide some justification for the tax, rather than simply hitting the energy industry with an arbitrary tax. </span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> 3) And of course, cancelling all carbon taxes would reduce the cost of all types of energy.</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><br /></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-9889242287621619672022-10-27T08:21:00.010+01:002022-10-27T08:30:55.984+01:00Inflation : Irish Energy Blog proven correct, Major Economists Wrong <div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Last October, I wrote an article predicting that inflation would not be temporary :</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><a href="http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/why-inflation-will-not-be-temporary.html"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Irish Energy Blog: Why Inflation will not be Temporary</span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Almost every other major economist at the time was predicting that inflation would be temporary or "transitory" :</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #404040;">"<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/inflation-inflation-inflation-still-seen-temporary-lagarde-says-2021-10-28/"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The European Central Bank still sees a recent rise in euro zone inflation to above its 2% target as temporary and expects price pressures to ease next year, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday" [Oct 21].</span></a></span></div><div><br /></div><div>"<a href="Inflation "is expected to dissipate over time, as supply disruption eases, global demand rebalances, and energy prices stop rising," with a peak likely in April next year, the BoE said in an announcement in which it vowed to train its eye on "medium-term prospects for inflation" and ignore "factors that are likely to be transient.""><span style="font-family: georgia;">Inflation "is expected to dissipate over time, as supply disruption eases, global demand rebalances, and energy prices stop rising," with a peak likely in April next year, the BoE said in an announcement in which it vowed to train its eye on "medium-term prospects for inflation" and ignore "factors that are likely to be transient." [Nov 21]</span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Jan 22 :</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #191919; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">"<a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/lane-stays-resolute-on-temporary-inflation-1.4771366">The word "transitory" seems to be gone from the lexicon but European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane is sticking to his guns, insisting the current burst of inflation is merely a temporary Covid phenomenon that will peel away later this year</a>".</span></span></div><div><span style="color: #191919; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #191919; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">It appears that the people who's job it is to understand inflation do not understand it. In very simple terms, this is how it works :</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">It does not matter the <u><i>cause</i></u> of supply shortages. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">You must not increase the money supply during supply or production shortages. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">If a country has four production facilities and three close down, then printing money will cause a surge in inflation because the money supply has increased when production supply has decreased in this case by 75%. The monetary policy was the opposite of what needed to happen. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">It does not matter the reason for the three plant closures - bad weather, pandemic, war, fuel shortage, aliens etc - the effect is the same, viz, a reduction in production. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet, this is exactly what economies all across the world did during the Covid lockdowns - they printed massive quantities of money during a period of very low output (and low interest rates). While the lockdowns were destructive in themselves, printing money simultaneously was like throwing petrol on the fire and for that reason I don't see an end to the inflation crisis for quite a few years. </span></div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-59793549991150293092022-10-06T06:33:00.008+01:002022-11-02T05:25:29.422+00:00Energy Crisis - Part One Lessons from the Past<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span> </span>During the 1970s, when the last serious energy crisis occurred, the Irish government and ESB, free from almost any ideological constraints, drew up plans for the single largest construction undertaking in the history of Ireland - Moneypoint coal power station. It was a huge success and the power station is still managing to keep the lights on during the current energy crisis despite being a target for destruction by the ideologues that swarm Leinster House today. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>Ideologue - various definitions given :</i></span></p><p></p><div class="vmod" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #202124; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></div><p></p><div data-dobid="dfn" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #202124; display: inline; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: georgia;"> - an adherent of an ideology, especially one who is uncompromising and dogmatic.</span></i></div><div><span style="color: #202124; font-family: georgia;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #303336; font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures; letter-spacing: 0.2px;"> - an often blindly partisan advocate or adherent of a particular </span><a class="mw_t_a_link" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ideology" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background-color: white; background-image: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(151, 190, 206) 100%, transparent 0px); background-position: 0px 1.15em; background-repeat: repeat-x; background-size: 3px 1px; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #265667; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures; font-variant-numeric: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.2px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ideology</a></i></span></div><div><span style="color: #202124;"><span style="color: black; font-family: georgia; font-size: small;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #303336; font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures; letter-spacing: 0.2px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i> - an impractical idealist</i></span></span></div><div><span><span style="color: #303336; font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures; letter-spacing: 0.2px;"><i><br /></i></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> - An </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333;">ideologue</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> is someone who has very strong beliefs or opinions and stubbornly sticks to them no matter what. An </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333;">ideologue</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> will insist they're right even when evidence suggests they might be wrong.</span></i><span style="color: #303336;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures; letter-spacing: 0.2px;"><br /></span></span></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The roots of the modern ideological movement began back then in the anti- nuclear movement. It could be argued that man has a natural aversion to nuclear power arising from fear of the unknown. It is of course still a relatively modern technology. But man has no natural aversion to coal. Indeed, the inhabitants of Ireland have been burning coal for thousands of years. In the 1770s, an ancient coal mine was discovered in Antrim. The antique mining tools found there disintegrated as soon as they were touched. It is only very recently in human history and after years of relentless propaganda that man has decided he wants to turn his back on coal even though it is proving more difficult than he first thought. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">It is not so much misinformation that is causing an unnatural fear of coal, but lack of balance and maturity in the judgement of those at the driving seat of the new ideology. For example, eating your lunch carries with it the risk of choking, but we all accept that risk for the benefits associated with satisfying your hunger. However, if we were to just focus on the negatives and ignore any positives, then the risk of choking is no longer acceptable and therefore eating must be outlawed as an antiquated pastime no longer acceptable in a modern progressive society. Afterall, choking is one of the leading causes of unintentional deaths every year. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">So this is the big difference between the 1970s and the 2020s - for ideological reasons we can't build another Moneypoint power station. Nuclear was ruled out then and is still ruled out now. Let's add coal to the black list. What can go wrong ?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">This leaves us with gas power. But surely it would be foolish to build more gas power stations when high gas prices and the uncertainty of gas supply are the root causes of the current energy crisis ? For the ideologues who become increasingly divorced from reality, this is not a problem. Gas is good, at least for now (except of course if it's LNG / Liquified Gas that can be shipped in in an emergency situation where the UK can't supply piped gas), coal is bad goes the diktat and the economists and media pundits, </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">one after the other,</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> fall in line. But for the gas generators contracted to build the new power stations, reality is not something they can ignore, and they are </span><a href="https://www.businesspost.ie/news/contracted-gas-generators-drop-out-of-market-worsening-projected-power-shortage/" style="font-family: georgia;">pulling out of the Irish market, one after the other</a><span style="font-family: georgia;">. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Since energy production is a long term enterprise (Moneypoint wasnt up and running until the mid-1980s) and involves engineering expertise, Governments can't magic power plants out of thin air after a crisis emerges. The sensible reaction to the 1970s crisis paved the way for a stable energy sector which enabled the economic growth of the 1990s and 2000s. But did this cheap reliable electricity that we all took for granted</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> back then create a false sense of security? You flick the switch and the lights automatically come on. The switch from one form of power generation with chimneys and stacks and emissions could seamlessly be made to another with turning blades and no emissions. You flick the switch and the lights automatically come on or will they ? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p><br /></p></div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-83646471114894576722022-02-20T20:42:00.000+00:002022-02-20T20:42:33.483+00:00Save the peace & tranquility of Gougane Barra for future generations<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> One of Ireland's most unique scenic areas, Gougane Barra in Cork, is at risk from environmental degradation if plans for a massive wind farm go ahead. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Even though Ireland's experiment with wind energy has failed, as we are forced to build more gas power stations to keep the lights on and electricity prices have skyrocketed, the wind hysteria is not yet over. Future generations will wonder how could one of the most sacred places in Ireland be industrialised by wind developers. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Please sign the Petition to stop it and be on the right side of history :</span></p><p><a href="https://www.change.org/p/an-bord-plean%C3%A1la-save-the-peace-tranquility-of-gougane-barra-for-future-generations-petition-only">https://www.change.org/p/an-bord-plean%C3%A1la-save-the-peace-tranquility-of-gougane-barra-for-future-generations-petition-only</a></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-27637571078161764202022-01-23T22:39:00.012+00:002022-01-24T10:49:59.105+00:00Ireland Ranks near bottom of Renewable Targets Table<h3 style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Wind Energy Oriented Renewable Plans Fared Badly</span></b></h3><div><b><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Ireland just about reached it's 2020 renewable target of 16% equalling Poland, a country not exactly renowned for its love of the "green religion". Ireland ranked 20th out of the 27th member states. Only Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, Holland and Hungary ranked lower.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">So the question must be asked - where did Ireland go wrong after spending billions on renewable energy and building 5,000MW of wind farms ? </span></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Surely if wind speeds are so high in Ireland as we are often told, then Ireland should be in the top 10 of Europe ?</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Sweden, Croatia, Finland, Bulgaria, Latvia and Austria topped the list of </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">renewable energy performers in the EU.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Here are the main sources of renewable energy for each country :</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Sweden - hydro, biomass. Exports a lot of electricity to Finland.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Croatia - hydro with some wind and solar. Imports a lot of electricity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Bulgaria - hydro and solar. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Finland - biomass and hydro. Imports a lot of electricity from Sweden and Russia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Latvia - biomass and hydro.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Austria - biomass and hydro.</span></p><p><u><span style="font-family: georgia;">And for countries outside the EU - - </span></u></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Iceland - geothermal.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Norway - hydro. Norway has 65 times as much hydro as wind.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>This clearly shows that the most successful renewables are Hydro and bioenergy/biomass</b>. There are also significant benefits to interconnection especially if the neighbouring country has a lot of hydro. For instance, Denmark has a similar amount of wind energy to Ireland, but relies heavily on imports from </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">hydro based electricity in </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">Norway and Sweden which means wind has to do a lot less heavy lifting than in Ireland (because imported electricity is emission free). Denmark ranks in the top 10 of the EU renewable energy targets table for this reason.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">It looks like Ireland backed the wrong horse with wind energy. However, based on past performance, it is unlikely that Ireland will put the brakes on and assess the situation.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-6566914531174597152022-01-18T17:23:00.004+00:002022-01-19T15:05:51.188+00:00The Forgotten Science on Peat Bog Formation<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> I recently received a gift of a new book by Francis Pryor called "<i>Scenes from Prehistoric life</i>". I have not read it completely and most of the book seems to relate to Britain. I came across an interesting bit about how bogs were formed which didn't seem right to me. Pryor writes that prehistoric sites occur relatively high in bogs because when the bogs formed in Britain and Ireland around 12,000 years ago, Britain still had not been re-inhabited following the end of the last Ice Age. It was only when farming began in the 5th millenium BC that the evidence for settlement increases rapidly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i></i></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>"These later remains tend to be found in the higher layers of peat which were the first to be removed during the process of extraction."</i></span></p><p></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">I thought this section of the book a bit strange because in Ireland there have been many artifacts found very deep in bogs e.g. - -</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">A todh or breastplate found 12 feet down in a bog in Limerick :</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://www.libraryireland.com/Druids/Druidical-Adornment.php">https://www.libraryireland.com/Druids/Druidical-Adornment.php</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRVPqjUjjdz9gnCjbi2E6wO5kGXdhbH2u5koWP7gkLISAALbbnPpIpmNK55spN2Ss-k2X0gab4L2BeWO0fmTQ8eTwu-8xU3wESNrKIWU5ziJlj3x5JYIB6nUzGzxCHJMvr5DncMVmT1vQ/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="400" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRVPqjUjjdz9gnCjbi2E6wO5kGXdhbH2u5koWP7gkLISAALbbnPpIpmNK55spN2Ss-k2X0gab4L2BeWO0fmTQ8eTwu-8xU3wESNrKIWU5ziJlj3x5JYIB6nUzGzxCHJMvr5DncMVmT1vQ/" width="240" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> - A <a href="https://archive.org/details/adescriptivecat00wildgoog/page/68/mode/2up?q=bog">celt stone implement</a> found at a depth of 15 feet in a bog in Derry</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://archive.org/details/adescriptivecat00wildgoog/page/156/mode/2up?q=bog"> - Pottery</a> found at a <i>great depth </i>in a sligo bog </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> - An <a href="https://archive.org/details/adescriptivecat00wildgoog/page/218/mode/2up?q=bog">ancient wooden candlestick</a> found at a depth of 16 feet deep in a Kerry bog</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> A <a href="https://archive.org/details/adescriptivecat00wildgoog/page/292/mode/2up?q=preserve">leather shoe</a> found 20 feet deep in a bog in Tipperary </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Then there is this remarkable bog find of an ancient house in the early part of the 18th century - from William Wilde's 1857 book on ancient artifacts (yes, that is Oscar's father). It was reckoned that the house was found 26 feet deep in the bog :</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7ufabsIVXHN65iZl5T20w4f_DUFHPxkmgR0t58rhdFn5i5JvGize_yKufuSIGwiX-heExanWKSx2JuiS76MAAc8I9KV_iCW7oSyUCf2oVGB2th8poGaXrwYgOrzfpKqYasJiwMTv5Zps/s505/hse.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="443" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7ufabsIVXHN65iZl5T20w4f_DUFHPxkmgR0t58rhdFn5i5JvGize_yKufuSIGwiX-heExanWKSx2JuiS76MAAc8I9KV_iCW7oSyUCf2oVGB2th8poGaXrwYgOrzfpKqYasJiwMTv5Zps/s320/hse.png" width="281" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1MwE9q8c290KLsUxbHOj3h-1Xmc_82B4xR0xnb07AyZGX6ZW9L-qLKmt5yOCmRdB3OtfY2lvAttjr0brzQ9EPmYl2a6DMBFl7iLpjuXRRsfTuIxeXFgga3gSyV2GoCNnlFOvpco3DDes/s518/hse2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="216" data-original-width="518" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1MwE9q8c290KLsUxbHOj3h-1Xmc_82B4xR0xnb07AyZGX6ZW9L-qLKmt5yOCmRdB3OtfY2lvAttjr0brzQ9EPmYl2a6DMBFl7iLpjuXRRsfTuIxeXFgga3gSyV2GoCNnlFOvpco3DDes/s320/hse2.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Which is corroborated here :</span></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i></i></span></span></p><blockquote><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>This agrees with the statement of Killpatrick, who asserts that he has taken twelve turf deep above the top of the house, and as every turf is about one foot long, it would give sixteen feet for the thickness on the top of the roof of the house.</i></span></span></blockquote><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/archaeologia/article/abs/xv-description-of-an-ancient-structure-dug-out-of-drumkelin-bog-in-the-parish-of-inver-county-of-donegal-in-the-year-1833-communicated-by-captain-william-mudge-rn/7C10516DCBFAD7A5A3E100ADE0553240">https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/archaeologia/article/abs/xv-description-of-an-ancient-structure-dug-out-of-drumkelin-bog-in-the-parish-of-inver-county-of-donegal-in-the-year-1833-communicated-by-captain-william-mudge-rn/7C10516DCBFAD7A5A3E100ADE0553240</a></span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">More recently, H.H. Lamb in his book "Climate, History and the Modern World (1995), gives a completely different account to Pryor. In England and Wales, evidence of man's activities was found in the earliest layers of peat formation :</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNI_WT2p1FXdeil_8d_qLX73qgsv4HuPn2uPjN3YZPytpEv-GPBCgBDuEv-9jPvgfmJ9dVF6m8vCfU1Z6myWq4ZGBzN4_WyN7FSF7H6lcMlwAkL7sPpn-GOcQXDLhWU0Y0wV0ryA4Drlk/s922/Screenshot_20211203_113910.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="922" data-original-width="875" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNI_WT2p1FXdeil_8d_qLX73qgsv4HuPn2uPjN3YZPytpEv-GPBCgBDuEv-9jPvgfmJ9dVF6m8vCfU1Z6myWq4ZGBzN4_WyN7FSF7H6lcMlwAkL7sPpn-GOcQXDLhWU0Y0wV0ryA4Drlk/w365-h384/Screenshot_20211203_113910.jpg" width="365" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">So one has to wonder, did now deceased archaeologists find most of the deeper bog artifacts decades and centuries ago and have modern archaeologists simply forgotten about them ? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">I raise this point here because it shows that science today sometimes forges it's own path without having regard to the knowledge gained before. While Pryor may be writing from experience, it should be pointed out that his conclusions differ from those experts gone before him and if they are correct then it proves that man has been altering the environment around him for many thousands of years. And most remarkably, even before the formation of peat bogs. </span></p><p><br /></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-79681850647507265272021-12-26T12:02:00.004+00:002021-12-26T12:09:37.691+00:00Off Grid Electricity keeps Lights On <h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Significant amounts of Diesel generation keeping the lights on at times </span></h3><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"> "<i>With regard to demand side units, even at the start of September we saw a significantly tight period. At that point, wind was giving us very low electricity. Demand side units were asked to become active and they did. They can respond and they can make a material difference there</i> " - <a href="https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/joint_committee_on_environment_and_climate_action/2021-10-05/2/">Energy Regulator, October 2021</a></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Demand side units are off Grid forms of generation that allow large users of electricity to switch off from the grid and generate their own.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">According to eirgrid, most of this form of generation is diesel generators :</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>Industrial generation refers to generation, <b>usually powered by diesel engines</b>, located on industrial or commercial premises, which acts as on-site supply during peak demand and emergency periods [<a href="http://www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/EirGrid-Group-All-Island-Generation-Capacity-Statement-2019-2028.pdf">Eirgrid Report</a>]</i><br /></span></div><div><i><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The energy regulator, in an Oireachtas Committee debate in October stated that these generators made a material difference in September when wind speeds were low.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">What this means is that at times a significant proportion of electricity produced in this country is not counted in the official figures. So when you read that gas has produced 57 % and wind 35 %, these figures refer only to the on grid proportion only. We do not have figures for off Grid which is mainly diesel. </span></div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-75553574102850161172021-12-25T21:07:00.000+00:002021-12-26T09:10:00.076+00:00A Solution to the Collatz Conjecture<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">I recently came across The Collatz Conjecture and was intrigued by how simple the puzzle was. It works like this - take an even number, divide it by two, if you end up with an odd number, multiply it by three and add one. It appears that for every number you begin with, you always ends up back at 1 through the sequence 4 - 2 - 1. Many mathematicians regard the conjecture as impossible to prove. However, I came up with a very simple proof in half a day. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;">This is a useful calculator to check various numbers and sequences :</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.dcode.fr/collatz-conjecture">https://www.dcode.fr/collatz-conjecture</a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;">The first step must be to begin with the simplest odd and even numbers - 1 and 2. 1 always goes to 4 and 2 always goes to 1. Every single number to infinity is comprised of these two numbers so it shouldn't really be surprising that we end up back at 4 - 2 - 1 for every number. The puzzle is set up from the start to return to this loop. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;">Next, you have to understand that it is irrelevant how high the number is we start with or how high a number we reach. All that matters is the very last digit in each number. 20,036 is the same as 2,036 or 136. This is because we count to the root of 10. If you break down numbers into blocks of ten, then 15 is simply the number 5 repeated again except it is on the second row of numbers (think of bricks in a wall). In music, there are only 12 notes, however, you can play an A note an octave higher, the musical equivalent of the second row of numbers. Therefore, the exact same pattern or sequence will repeat itself over and over again regardless of the magnitude of the numbers. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table style="background-color: #f8efd3; color: #212529; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Lucida Console", monospace; font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; min-width: 87px;"><tbody><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">20036</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">10018</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">5009</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">15028</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">7514</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">3757</td></tr></tbody></table><br><table style="background-color: #f8efd3; color: #212529; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Lucida Console", monospace; font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; min-width: 87px;"><tbody><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">2036</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1018</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">509</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1528</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">764</td></tr></tbody></table><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table style="background-color: #f8efd3; color: #212529; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Lucida Console", monospace; font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; min-width: 98px;"><tbody><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1036</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">518</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">259</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">778</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">389</td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table style="background-color: #f8efd3; color: #212529; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Lucida Console", monospace; font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; min-width: 87px;"><tbody style="font-size: 1.2em;"><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">136</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">68</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">34</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">17</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">52</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">You will of course notice that there are variations in the sequence in those last digits. This is because different patterns repeat themselves in every second row of numbers. This flow chart gives a handy summary of the sequences :</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi-pU1vWnV6A0Vf0aKXgcoNYq39rGxk-c1Szn-xENY_NQ0Bh0QMNs0igsqAYC5LZifTbtfgdwqyjOxOA_dGkglldbCSfD2f3MUGMqvUsxllWNGPMfNCtdj5sKvWZB8YAEnyMETfqqA5ws/s1600/1639067049576745-0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">
<img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi-pU1vWnV6A0Vf0aKXgcoNYq39rGxk-c1Szn-xENY_NQ0Bh0QMNs0igsqAYC5LZifTbtfgdwqyjOxOA_dGkglldbCSfD2f3MUGMqvUsxllWNGPMfNCtdj5sKvWZB8YAEnyMETfqqA5ws/w541-h247/1639067049576745-0.png" width="541">
</a>
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">So these variations repeat themselves and therefore the conjecture is based on very simple predictable sequences. A number ending in 6 can go to either a number ending in 8 or 3. 8 brings you to either a 9 or a 4. 9 always brings you back to an 8. Take 19 or 25,379 - you will always end up with a number ending in 8 after multiplying by 3 and adding 1. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">4 brings you to either a 7 or a 2 depending on whether the number is on every first or second row of numbers. The numbers 14, 34, 54, 74, 94, 114 etc will give you numbers ending in 7 while 24, 44, 64, 84 etc will give you numbers ending in 2. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The next step is to check if there is a <i>magic sequence</i> that reduces a very high number to a very low number. This is an important step because it explains how we can go from a very high number to a low number approaching 4, 8 or 16 i.e. the final sequence in a few steps. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> The answer is that there are two magic sequences. By continually multiplying by three and adding one, no matter what number you begin with, you will always arrive at a magic sequence eventually. Or another way of putting it, no matter how high you go, you will always return to a very low number. The first magic sequence is 8,4,2,1. This sequence arises from a simple fact that every school kid with basic knowledge of mathematics knows - that if you divide any square of 2 in half you will always arrive at a sequence of numbers divisible by 2. Magic sequence number 1 results in a cascade of numbers all the way down to 1. There may be other numbers in front of that 1 but this proves the tendency of the conjecture to approach 1.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The second magic sequence is 6,3,0,0,0,5 with some variation in the number of zeros. This arises out of the fact that sometimes numbers ending in 6 give a number ending in 3 which then always gives a number ending in zero. Zero numbers always half very neatly and give another cascade effect - e.g. 160, 80, 40, 20, 10 which then gives a 5. Normally, magic sequence #2 follows #1 resulting in a super cascade effect as you can see in this example. Also, if magic sequence #1 is interrupted by a 7 say, magic seq #2 will usually follow. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table style="background-color: #f8efd3; color: #212529; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Lucida Console", monospace; font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; min-width: 98px;"><tbody><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">2308</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1154</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">577</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1732</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">866</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">433</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1300</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">650</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">325</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">976</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">488</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">244</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">122</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">61</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">184</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">92</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">46</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">23</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">70</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">35</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">106</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">53</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">160</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">80</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">40</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">20</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">10</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">5</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">16</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">8</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">4</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">2</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1</td></tr></tbody></table><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">We can see that 976 results in 61 after four steps which is 16 times less or <span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;">2</span><span style="font-size: 14px; position: relative; top: -0.4em; vertical-align: baseline;">4 </span></span><span style="font-family: georgia;">times. So magic seq#1 gives 976/</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: 14px;">2</span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: 14px; position: relative; top: -0.4em; vertical-align: baseline;">4 </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">= 61. Three steps later, we are at 46 and now locked into magic seq#2 which gives us 35 and then 160. 160 cascades to 5 after five steps, a drop of 32 times or </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;">2</span><span style="font-size: 14px; position: relative; top: -0.4em; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span></span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #5f6368; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; position: relative; top: -0.4em; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">times. Once we get to single digit 5, we will always end up back at 1. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Here is another example. In this one, we don't reach a magic sequence for a while but once we do we are very nearly there. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table style="background-color: #f8efd3; color: #212529; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Lucida Console", monospace; font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; min-width: 87px;"><tbody style="font-size: 1.2em;"><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">87</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">262</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">131</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">394</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">197</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">592</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">296</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">148</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">74</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">37</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">112</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">56</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">28</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">14</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">7</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">22</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">11</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">34</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">17</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">52</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">26</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">13</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">40</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">20</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">10</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">5</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">16</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">8</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">4</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">2</td></tr><tr><td class="result number" style="background-color: #f0e4c9; padding-left: 3px; text-align: right;">1</td></tr></tbody></table><br></div><div style="text-align: left;">Some numbers like 27 just take longer to reach one of the magic sequences, 65 steps in fact. Then once the second magic sequence is reached after that, we are very close to the end. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;">So there is no mystery at all here. We have endless time and limitless amounts of steps which means we will inevitably reach those magic sequences which are the simple result of counting to the base of 10 and the inherent characteristic of the number 2 and its squares. Remember that built into the rules is the number 2 - 1, 2, 4..</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br></div><div style="text-align: left;">The only mystery is how this conjecture has puzzled mathematicians for so long. </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-35420154332684346902021-12-15T16:06:00.005+00:002021-12-15T18:10:07.168+00:00Eirgrid to Underground New Grid Infrastructure <p> Over the past decade, as many readers will know, there has been a huge furor in many communities north and south of the border about the North South Interconnector. With the main bone of contention being the decision by Eirgrid not to underground it. However, it looks like Eirgrid have finally learned a lesson from that and are now listening to communities. But surely this new approach by Eirgrid raises questions about their existing plans for the North South Interconnector ?</p><p id="para_181" style="border: 0px; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5625rem; margin: 0px; padding: 12.5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i></i></span></p><blockquote><p id="para_181" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5625rem; margin: 0px; padding: 12.5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: georgia;">On the grid side, we have made three decisions in the past 12 months that we arguably might not have made five years ago. We declared that two major pieces of grid infrastructure are going underground. The first is in the Dublin-Kildare region where we have made the call and said a critical piece of west Dublin infrastructure is going to be underground.</span></i></span></p><p id="para_182" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5625rem; margin: 0px; padding: 12.5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: georgia;">We have said the line to Mayo will be underground and the converter station for the Celtic Interconnector, one of Ireland's most critical projects which will link us to France, will be located not beside the substation in Knockraha, but in an industrial site in Ballyadam. This is because that is what communities asked us to do - Mark Foley, CEO Eirgrid</span></i></span></p><p id="para_182" style="border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5625rem; margin: 0px; padding: 12.5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></p></blockquote><p id="para_182" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5625rem; margin: 0px; padding: 12.5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><u>Link :</u></span></span></p><p id="para_182" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5625rem; margin: 0px; padding: 12.5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/joint_committee_on_environment_and_climate_action/2021-10-05/2/" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/joint_committee_on_environment_and_climate_action/2021-10-05/2/</span></a></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-61270844012564528112021-12-10T17:36:00.004+00:002021-12-10T18:36:38.141+00:00The Green Europe and Unsustainable Finances Paradox<p> </p><p>The graph below shows the total balance sheet assets of three of the world's major banks - the Fed in America, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. It is noteworthy for many reasons. Firstly, the ECB has overtaken the other two with total assets of $9.6 trillion. Most of this is due to quantitative easing (QE) or money printing. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx4ObF1d_6z08DMwFxJEsUrJi-3EhQnkhoSUjANQb33vnFiZMa3mnsr5D4rwR8lrRlrkB1JeEFUDNV6ydLdRHa6ohkpliCyLg9UgNQ0dGTAMG8cJIsWGIj5S7ZwwR-0hM5Q2RYmWtNVHI/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="807" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx4ObF1d_6z08DMwFxJEsUrJi-3EhQnkhoSUjANQb33vnFiZMa3mnsr5D4rwR8lrRlrkB1JeEFUDNV6ydLdRHa6ohkpliCyLg9UgNQ0dGTAMG8cJIsWGIj5S7ZwwR-0hM5Q2RYmWtNVHI/w470-h294/image.png" width="470"></a></div><br>The ECB has been engaging in large scale QE since 2015, long before the covid pandemic. Which is odd since most of Europe's economies were strong then. Certainly, here in Ireland, house prices were rising again, as were rents by 2015 and 2016. At the end of 2016, the government brought in rent controls to cap rent increases. Also in early 2016, the European Commission expected Ireland to be the fastest growing economy in Europe. Yet, Ireland was been flooded with this cheap ECB money which the government was only too happy to take and spend in an economy beginning to heat up (on a side note - it didnt fix the health service did it ?). <p></p><div><br></div><div>As the pandemic hit in March 2020, the ECB went even further than US and Japan and printed enormous amounts of euros to the extent that they practically doubled their balance sheet. Although there are other factors impacting inflation right now, I believe this to be one of the main reasons, if not the most significant. Over half of this new money has gone to government bonds, a record amount of central bank financing of government debt. Normally, the government would have to go to the market to trade their bonds. But we are far away from normal in this age of negative interest rates. Now the central bank prints the new money to buy government bonds that presumably most of the market would not touch.</div><div><br></div><div>What is remarkable about all this is that, in a Europe completely captured by the green movement, government finances have been allowed to reach such epic unsustainable proportions. Surely, government spending should be reduced so as to reduce consumption. Enabling countries to spend beyond their means and deferring the cost of excessive consumption should be the last thing that green politicians should want. It's true, that some of this spending has gone on renewable infrastructure such as wind turbines and pylons (about € 1 trillion) . But these technologies require large amounts of rare earths and metals to produce and so contribute to more consumption and more mining of the planet. Instead, the preferred method to reduce consumption is through taxation. The problem with taxing fuel and electricity is that it results in yet more government spending as the poor and working class become even poorer and are unable to pay for necessities like fuel and electricity. The government then gets locked into a spending cycle where pressure comes on it to increase social welfare supports and just recently the Irish government has planned to give every household €100 off their electricity bill. The cycle of taxation - borrow / spend - inflation - tax - borrow - inflation continues.</div><div><br></div><div>If we were really serious about sustainability then we would get our finances in order first. By encouraging people to save instead of spend, we slow that economic growth that eco warriors claim is destroying our planet. We put the future on a firm sustainable footing. But instead we have created the exact opposite environment of low / negative interest rates where people are unable to save and governments spend beyond their wildest dreams. </div><div><br></div><div>It is incredible to me that green politicians are not aware of this simple paradox. Or perhaps that old saying "money talks" is more relevant than ever and still overrides all of the green buzzwords that politicians love to use. </div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-8576310063728093532021-12-02T21:24:00.003+00:002021-12-02T21:33:06.627+00:00More Gas Power Stations to be Built The government have issued a policy <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/a4757-policy-statement-on-security-of-electricity-supply/">statement on security of electricity supply</a> which states :<div><br></div><div><ul reboot-site-list=""><li>the development of new conventional generation (including gas-fired and gasoil/distillate-fired generation) is a national priority and should be permitted and supported in order to ensure security of electricity supply and support the growth of renewable electricity generation</li></ul><div>This amounts to an admission that the renewable programme has failed. Imagine if a smoker said I will need to smoke more just to support my attempt at quitting smoking. They would rightly be ridiculed.</div></div><div> </div><div><ul reboot-site-list=""><li>it is appropriate that existing conventional electricity generation capacity should be retained until the new conventional electricity generation capacity is developed in order to ensure security of electricity supply</li></ul><div>Many years ago on this blog I warned that wind energy would never be capable of replacing a power station. Here we have an admission that Moneypoint coal power station and Tarbert oil power station cannot be replaced by renewables. So what is the point? Henry Ford's model T replaced the horse and cart. The telephone replaced the telegram.</div></div><div><br></div><div>The same government banned gas and oil exploration and of course a coal mine would never be allowed to open again in Ireland. So what will all these fossil fuel power stations run on in the new energy scarce future ? Hot air? Wishful thinking? Empty platitudes? Virtue signalling? Of those, we have plenty. </div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-8735346794772361812021-11-27T12:01:00.003+00:002021-11-27T12:12:34.007+00:00Can the VAT rate on Electricity be Reduced? <div>Sinn Féin suggested recently that the VAT rate on electricity, currently at 13.5%, be temporarily removed to ease the burden on households over the winter. The government have claimed that they can't do that due to EU law. In this post, I will take a quick look at the VAT Directive and try to establish what is actually permitted. </div><div><br /></div><div>First of all, there is no doubt that the minimum vat rate allowed is 5%, so that rules out a complete removal of vat :</div><div><br /></div><div></div><blockquote><div><br /></div><div><i>"The reduced rates shall be fixed as a percentage of the taxable amount, which may not be less than 5 %"</i>. </div></blockquote><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Next, Article 118 states that certain services cannot go below 12% and this was referred to by the government as applicable to electricity. As electricity comes under Annex 1, it would seem that the government is correct (- -but wouldn't 12% be better than no reduction ? ) :</div><div><br /></div><div></div><blockquote><div>" <i>Article 118</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i> Member States which, at 1 January 1991, were applying a reduced rate to the supply of goods or services other than those specified in Annex III may apply the reduced rate, or one of the two reduced rates, provided for in Article 98 to the supply of those goods or services, provided that the rate is not lower than 12 %</i>". </div></blockquote><div></div><div><br /></div><div>However, something that has been noticed before is that there is often a grey area with EU law. Article 102 deals specifically with the supply of energy, including electricity and allows for either of the two reduced rates to be applied. In the case of Ireland, the two reduced rates are 13.5% and 9% (for hotels) :</div><div></div><blockquote><div><br /></div><div>"<i>Article 102</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>After consultation of the VAT Committee, each Member State may apply a reduced rate to the supply of natural gas, electricity or district heating</i>"</div></blockquote><div></div><div><br /></div><div>It is remarkable that no reference is made here to the minimum rate of 12%, but as article 102 precedes 118, perhaps it is inferred that 102 can be relied upon alone in relation to electricity. In that case, surely, a reference to the exception under 102 should have been made in 118. </div><div><br /></div><div>I am no legal expert and perhaps someone can comment below on what they think. </div><div><br /></div><div>We can test the legal recipes in the EU VAT directive by the results. And here, it would seem to be the case that when we look at other European countries, the vat on electricity can be reduced to a minimum of 5%.</div><div><br /></div><div>- - Portugal reduced the vat on electricity to 6% for low usage households in 2019. Initial figures show that the reduced rate applies to about 42% of customers with the rest paying vat at the higher rate of 23%.</div><div><br /></div><div>- - Spain have introduced a temporary reduction to 10% for low usage customers until December 2021. After that, the vat will revert to the normal 21% rate. It is estimated that the vast majority of households and businesses will qualify for the reduced 10 % rate. </div><div><br /></div><div>- - Italy have a fixed vat rate of 10% on electricity. This proves that the minimum rate of 12% does not apply to electricity as per article 102 . Applying the Italian model to Ireland would mean we could reduce our vat rate to 9% on electricity. </div><div><br /></div><div>- - Greece have a super reduced vat rate of 6% on electricity since 2019. This also applies to medicine and vaccines as well as children's books. Their normal reduced rate is 13 % which applies to hotels. It is interesting to see that in Ireland we seem to have our priorities completely wrong with hotels regarded as more essential than electricity. </div><div><br /></div><div>- - The UK had along with Malta the lowest vat rate on electricity in the EU with a rate of 5%. One of the reasons for brexit is that they were not able to reduce it to zero. </div><div><br /></div><div>- - Luxembourg have a vat rate of 8% on electricity. </div><div><br /></div><div>It seems clear that the vat rate on electricity can be lowered to at least 9%. But the government have chosen the spending option as usual which means additional handouts to struggling families. Which in turn will lead to a cycle of inflation as bills rise even more. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-28986702727965020382021-11-25T15:21:00.006+00:002021-11-25T15:55:03.938+00:00EU Ban Scottish Potato Seeds<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> Ireland has been importing potato seeds from Scotland for over 150 years but amazingly the EU has banned them following Brexit because they do not comply with "phytosanitary rules". I thought it truly remarkable that the most virus resistant seed available to Ireland since the Great Famine does not comply with EU rules. And we pay the EU for the privilege. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisGaabNSLoZ7Mw35EIeNKSFXe0M3TW4cEG2_FGE18fm3m4ohG7H4J3pyHhOh6fxSC7Gxw_4RsMQ4mYroILJBkp4D1_mREMsSx4SEVYrz_NhU3QF6C9RzRpGmxM25Szi5HXA6QW5jBzwUg/s710/pot.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="566" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisGaabNSLoZ7Mw35EIeNKSFXe0M3TW4cEG2_FGE18fm3m4ohG7H4J3pyHhOh6fxSC7Gxw_4RsMQ4mYroILJBkp4D1_mREMsSx4SEVYrz_NhU3QF6C9RzRpGmxM25Szi5HXA6QW5jBzwUg/s320/pot.png" width="255" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">1866</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbvODqgEDpaNm47R6qSUd2azye6J7qA4e5HOusPX1zNP8xqaVuAqKijUHtpyz5vGL1pzspiyL9vg1vPVMTys8U_9Uu4Tu063NyBmlSyEBpJk2HVnv5jBMTWKS0viUiQskuPCHpeG76YsU/s590/pot+2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="502" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbvODqgEDpaNm47R6qSUd2azye6J7qA4e5HOusPX1zNP8xqaVuAqKijUHtpyz5vGL1pzspiyL9vg1vPVMTys8U_9Uu4Tu063NyBmlSyEBpJk2HVnv5jBMTWKS0viUiQskuPCHpeG76YsU/s320/pot+2.png" width="272" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">1879</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs7hwoAtBI1V2OvE25Xgzv-UdCl0MhduZBuj4D6dWNe5S_MK7BKesQfK_PFsZ4PlFMk98MNXm_ExyqZ_JDdm69Ck7n14Gb90roNBhYAJje2eRgto4NFowuvBaba5e5YMlNonrhrnpJzhg/s357/pot+3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="350" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs7hwoAtBI1V2OvE25Xgzv-UdCl0MhduZBuj4D6dWNe5S_MK7BKesQfK_PFsZ4PlFMk98MNXm_ExyqZ_JDdm69Ck7n14Gb90roNBhYAJje2eRgto4NFowuvBaba5e5YMlNonrhrnpJzhg/s320/pot+3.png" width="314" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">1949</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-39563531564659175382021-11-24T10:12:00.012+00:002021-11-25T16:04:00.225+00:00Peak Winter Demand Arrives<h4 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Things get a little bit shaky !</span></h4><p> <span style="font-family: georgia;">Last night at 5.30pm, the electricity grid hit peak demand for All Ireland at 6,638MW - not far off Record peak demand of 6,878MW reached on December 21st last year.</span></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMkBDsp4vJ08xK-ku86e02IyFvrsQTWgREEUYK4noz6lSf9ml2cDPtTcve6peNDky9q97X4OiecNaSK_dTGg4Jupm0gzp3bDp3Z6Zf57F54wvmgZurWzs8tBEuMbR75LZiVo5Ye7CFSys/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="595" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMkBDsp4vJ08xK-ku86e02IyFvrsQTWgREEUYK4noz6lSf9ml2cDPtTcve6peNDky9q97X4OiecNaSK_dTGg4Jupm0gzp3bDp3Z6Zf57F54wvmgZurWzs8tBEuMbR75LZiVo5Ye7CFSys/w413-h263/image.png" width="413" /></a></div><br /></div>.<p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">But total system generation was only 6,106MW leaving a shortfall of 532MW. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqeMm80wzVSD6HgHoeYpAse0p8a_n8E-U5gWaJCwMtqcJPdjMCiye-hNlH5xNo2OcDC7kBvvzDDZN-hoNXFCnCQO24UW2qTU7eZlIht37SJSLeywprJG963eNn625vt3Ioo44z_Af9E0o/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="260" data-original-width="578" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqeMm80wzVSD6HgHoeYpAse0p8a_n8E-U5gWaJCwMtqcJPdjMCiye-hNlH5xNo2OcDC7kBvvzDDZN-hoNXFCnCQO24UW2qTU7eZlIht37SJSLeywprJG963eNn625vt3Ioo44z_Af9E0o/w417-h188/image.png" width="417" /></a></div><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Wind energy was low most of the day, only 380MW or about 7% was available for the whole island at 5.30pm.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOZaql0Dff37A_ghEPQ4P1I5fqSCnn_kRTtiukMPDRd63Cj12fJcmB9t0fs9QbyDXN0JJnxUdn7oZATVGu-Z7uboQbscvZLZBBCl3jLgupLuxJuwny5wo7FtRZqZo_5C9Pl1eb_FjUukU/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="294" data-original-width="623" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOZaql0Dff37A_ghEPQ4P1I5fqSCnn_kRTtiukMPDRd63Cj12fJcmB9t0fs9QbyDXN0JJnxUdn7oZATVGu-Z7uboQbscvZLZBBCl3jLgupLuxJuwny5wo7FtRZqZo_5C9Pl1eb_FjUukU/w390-h184/image.png" width="390" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The two UK interconnectors saved the day with combined imports of 450MW. There was still a shortfall of about 80MW, made up presumably from demand side units. These would comprise mostly of diesel generators and combined heat and power units. These units are "<i>non-centrally monitored</i>" according to Eirgrid and are not included in these graphs. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvwheWqDMg0GzmZ4d41cpn8qQp7lk-UNl4oPLQpXOcCwZoxH_6bGTeGYnUQJz-Yq-k52f4XUA0XFOrareS2pvFmhwLTrVTddLzJpsxwzxLJrUQt9bzH4M7smKvOCy0QrHR8oVoaIxgFIY/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="202" data-original-width="409" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvwheWqDMg0GzmZ4d41cpn8qQp7lk-UNl4oPLQpXOcCwZoxH_6bGTeGYnUQJz-Yq-k52f4XUA0XFOrareS2pvFmhwLTrVTddLzJpsxwzxLJrUQt9bzH4M7smKvOCy0QrHR8oVoaIxgFIY/w421-h207/image.png" width="421" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Of course, that damned Brexit lot across the sea with their dastardly nuclear power charged us handsomely for the imported power, at € 2,000 a MW. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigi_ZDRkqpXP_oGteXS2zv9HLiAq_ATGjRyxamiW2WrHbZ8FsQXkevGkTmXGcaHd-g1HgcyRc5bcOn70jogau-c_MtgZJrQmdq8FgbOTyZ4qysQuI8a-WHozLWrlZAKGha0pv7zsW14pg/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="210" data-original-width="421" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigi_ZDRkqpXP_oGteXS2zv9HLiAq_ATGjRyxamiW2WrHbZ8FsQXkevGkTmXGcaHd-g1HgcyRc5bcOn70jogau-c_MtgZJrQmdq8FgbOTyZ4qysQuI8a-WHozLWrlZAKGha0pv7zsW14pg/w400-h200/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">To give some credit to the Irish grid operators, they were correct to build the East West interconnector as it is making up for the once efficient gas plant that have been prematurely wrecked from backing up the wind. One just hopes that the UK will have sufficient power to give us on those cold winter nights over the next few months. </span></div></div><br /><br /></div><br /></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-70584711475860692322021-11-23T09:44:00.005+00:002021-11-23T09:46:50.707+00:00Whitegate and Dublin Bay Power Stations Trip<h4 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-small;"> 850MW of generation lost last night</span></h4><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Both Whitegate and Dublin Bay gas power stations tripped last night a few hours after I had published about the return of Whitegate power station. Dublin Bay appears to be back this morning but Whitegate is still offline. This shows the precarious nature we are in. It now means we are dependent on a not too dependent interconnector and wind system. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is no reason given for the outages. It's possible that the loss of one power station can trip another but whether this is what occurred last night I do not know. </span></div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-69021842130251909472021-11-22T16:15:00.006+00:002021-11-22T16:17:27.689+00:00Whitegate Gas Power Station back in Action<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> <a href="https://umm.nordpoolgroup.com/#/messages/831eaedd-c900-45fb-ba05-369f30431471/30">Whitegate power station has in the past hour returned to operation</a> after nearly 12 months out of action due to a turbine fault. It is expected to return to full commercial operation tomorrow. A small loose bit of metal caused significant damage last December to what is a very sensitive piece of equipment. It was due back at the beginning of November. The return of the 444MW power station comes just at a good time as the weather has turned cold and demand is rising. Also imports from the UK and wind energy appear to be very low in the past few days. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/energy-regulator-existing-fleet-has.html">Back in July, the Energy Regulator warned</a> that<span style="background-color: white;"> power stations have become less reliable due to extreme operational requirements that they were not designed for during periods of intermittent wind. </span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-37932666189606250132021-11-16T14:50:00.013+00:002021-11-16T14:57:36.232+00:00Is the Covid Vaccine Working ? (Part 2)<p> The covid vaccines do not seem to be having the same impact as previous vaccine rollouts such as the MMR vaccine :</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_gPR9F4xjFknhpnA3znrWIOCQx_lHbfoK6wYRBoiU8xKwSmJBQqw70FJrbV2PBRiAOlI_ZjJdSeUWsjCk63AIo6CPi_M4hWEJDZ05MxYkKVbs7bAK5ZRmIK_FYljD1MHam1sRHAadVP8/s1280/mmr.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="1280" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_gPR9F4xjFknhpnA3znrWIOCQx_lHbfoK6wYRBoiU8xKwSmJBQqw70FJrbV2PBRiAOlI_ZjJdSeUWsjCk63AIo6CPi_M4hWEJDZ05MxYkKVbs7bAK5ZRmIK_FYljD1MHam1sRHAadVP8/w320-h202/mmr.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source : https://www.bmj.com/content/330/7500/1119</span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Introduced in October 1988, there was a 90% vaccination rate for children in the UK, similar to the rate of the covid vaccine here in Ireland. The impact is apparent in the sharp fall in rates of infection in the following years. <br /><br /><p></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-33921703540566711702021-11-06T20:43:00.002+00:002021-11-06T20:43:15.458+00:00Saving the Amazon not on the COP26 Menu<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> I had a quick look at the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/">objectives of COP26</a>. The main ones are - lower emissions, stop coal, more EVs, more renewables, protect only those ecosystems affected by climate change and printing more money.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The biggest environmental problem in the world today is the destruction of the Amazon rainforest. The leading cause is cattle ranching. Banning the importation of Brazilian beef until the destruction stops would help save the rainforests. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">But that is not on the menu at COP26. The modern environmental movement is not fit for purpose.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-50153324248343648192021-10-21T12:54:00.009+01:002021-10-21T12:58:22.149+01:00Precarious Winter Outlook According to the Eirgrid Winter Outlook, the Irish electricity system will be operating at twice the level of acceptable risk this winter. The system is expected to enter the Alert State at times of low wind, low interconnector imports and low temperatures. No mention is made of Huntstown or Whitegate power stations. Are they assumed to return as expected? We are not told [update: it appears that Huntstown will be back later this week]. <div><br /></div><div>There are a number of engineering realities that are laid bare in the report that are a sobering read and at odds with the endless spin that has been published in the past in the media about green energy. </div><div><br /></div><div>• Only 9% of total wind energy capacity is deemed as reliable or can be relied upon. </div><div><br /></div><div>• Forced outage rates (the rate at which power stations are breaking down) have increased by 5 times over the past 5 years. This would appear to indicate that these power stations cannot cope with higher levels of intermittent wind energy.</div><div><br /></div><div>• Some CCGT (gas) plant is scheduled to be unavailable for 5-6 weeks of the winter period because of scheduled maintenance. This will be in November and early March. There is no guarantee that wind energy will be available during these weeks and, hence, the highest risk of blackouts will occur during these periods. This proves that wind energy cannot replace, nor is it equivalent to, a power station. </div><div><br /></div><div>There is also another factor which does not seem to be included in this report. Wind farms, like power stations, also need maintenance - in particular, the older fleet. Whilst it is unlikely that a significant amount of them would break down at the same time, sourcing replacement parts may take more time than normal in the present supply chain crisis. </div><div><br /></div><div>This is the first time that Eirgrid have published a winter outlook that warns of a high risk of blackouts. Last year, they were concerned about a trend of "<i>increasing
demand, dispatchable generation exiting the market and increasing generator forced outage rates</i>". </div><div><br /></div><div>They were correct, that trend has continued into this year. Did anyone listen or take note ? Of course not. But then Eirgrid's own chief, Mark Foley, dismissed concerns about blackouts, saying <a href="https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40714130.html"> people can sleep soundly in their beds</a> this winter. </div><div><br /></div><div>We must trust the plan. </div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-50422942368856647822021-10-18T21:19:00.003+01:002021-10-19T14:50:20.065+01:00Daylight Fuel Robbery An independent TD has brilliantly summed up the ongoing theft of motorists by the government :<div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>"if you fill your car with €100 of fuel today, the shopkeeper who works in the shop and has people and wages to pay gets just €3.90, the companies that operates the refineries and drills the oil and deliver it all around the country gets €34, and the government who sits in the dail and have nothing to do with producing or supplying the fuel gets a whopping €54"... <a href="https://www.change.org/p/the-irish-government-irish-drivers-want-change">This has got to change</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://youtu.be/xcpL1ppH6xo">https://youtu.be/xcpL1ppH6xo</a></div>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-18510250501281940422021-10-12T17:29:00.002+01:002021-10-12T18:28:15.296+01:00Why Inflation will not be Temporary<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCbE_poI-KizRnKqJ9gvYqXT2vb5c7VVf9VtBWChyphenhyphengsWkjTkVKNvIivox1B1d_cAyjXasHUJpFGJJzdVEiUv1e0Iux9qh6sVmqRoFPVMsdRoJgQIosFVML-HnO9Uvk9h4hJBQpBJNUpfM/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="386" data-original-width="1012" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCbE_poI-KizRnKqJ9gvYqXT2vb5c7VVf9VtBWChyphenhyphengsWkjTkVKNvIivox1B1d_cAyjXasHUJpFGJJzdVEiUv1e0Iux9qh6sVmqRoFPVMsdRoJgQIosFVML-HnO9Uvk9h4hJBQpBJNUpfM/w563-h214/image.png" width="563"></a></div><br><br></div><p></p><p>The current conventional wisdom is that inflation in Ireland will only be temporary as the economy recovers from the covid lockdowns. But this can only be the case if there was deflation during the lockdowns which the re-opening induced inflation would now be negating. The only deflation that occurred during the lockdowns that I can remember was petrol prices. Core consumer items such as food, electricity bills and rent did not fall or at least not in any noticeable way. A period of deflation is not equivalent with an economy being closed down. A rental freeze is not deflation. This is the mistake the economic experts are making. They also have not taken into account the effects of the large government spending. </p><p>When a hotel or other business is shutdown, its prices do not reduce, the service simply ceases to exist. In fact, inflation will likely occur. Say two hotels close down in a region leaving only one hotel open. This will lead to a period of inflation as the remaining hotel raises its prices to take advantage of the increased demand and reduced supply. The difference between this scenario and the lockdown was that during the lockdown all three hotels were shutdown meaning there was no deflationary pressure. Then when the hotels opened, they could charge high prices because people had a lot of savings. This was an unintended consequence of the high level of unemployment support. And the same happened with rent, an opportunity was missed during lockdown to bring about rental deflation through a smaller Pandemic Unemployment Benefit. Instead, the government went along with the calls from the most populist spending cheer-leaders. </p><p>Another point that is missed is that many businesses may never re-open again. This will bring further inflationary pressure as supply reduces. </p><p>As you can see from the graph above, the sharpest fall in prices was in November 2020 when year on year deflation reached -1.5%. This was the sharpest fall in a decade. In less than 12 months however , the inflation has skyrocketed to +3.7%.</p><p>While there are other factors impacting inflation right now, such as our high dependence on global supply chains, the high levels of pandemic payments paid out last year are part of the reason why Ireland has inflation above the EU average and even above <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-12196322">UK's inflation rate of 3.2%</a>. People saved up, then spent most of it in-between the lockdowns leaving little pressure on businesses to drop their prices. Little haggling took place with landlords who should have been under severe pressure to drop their rents during a period of very little house moving by job hunters both within Ireland and those coming from abroad. </p><p>But as every economist should know but seems to have forgotten, all this money had to be printed, which was happening at a high rate prior to the pandemic anyway. Too much money printing or quantitative easing (or whatever you want to call it) , and the inflation snail eventually catches up with you. Too much money ends up chasing too few goods. And then the snail begins to look like a rabbit. </p><p><br></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-85723265613234783452021-10-04T10:28:00.003+01:002021-10-04T10:30:40.311+01:00Gas Prices Rise and Fall but Energy Bills never get Cheaper<p><i></i></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">People's memories are short in Ireland so now is a good time to remind them that gas prices rise and fall but energy bills never get cheaper. This is a quote from an <a href="https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/airtricity-was-paid-32m-to-run-power-station-for-just-50-hours-30992601.html">Irish Independent article from 2015 </a>:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><blockquote><p><i><span style="font-family: georgia;"> "<span style="color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: no-contextual;">Irish consumers pay the fourth-highest energy bills in Europe, according to EU statistics. <b>Little of the large recent falls in wholesale gas and oil prices have been passed on to consumers".</b></span></span></i></p><div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Nuacht Serif Text", "Nuacht Serif Headline", Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: no-contextual; margin-bottom: var(--sy); margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding: 0px; transition-property: var(--t8n_p1);"><div class="slot1" data-ad-slot="" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; flex-grow: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition-property: var(--t8n_p1);"><div class="slot1-wrap" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: sticky; text-align: center; top: calc(var(--st, 0) + var(--gx, 0)); transition-property: var(--t8n_p1);"><i><div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: unset; transition-property: var(--t8n_p1); vertical-align: top; width: 620px;"></div></i></div></div></div><p></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The energy industry and politicians are now blaming high gas prices for the massive rise in electricity prices. In a properly functioning market, falls in wholesale prices would lead to lower bills. It has to work both ways. This clearly did not happen. </span></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-12096252682998840872021-09-30T07:06:00.007+01:002021-09-30T09:32:38.423+01:00How Close is Ireland to Blackouts ?<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXa6Y6As02N1Ku3GXABre94VdwBemmZbKuzSnpQkP8ul4u8jTPaX3OrtLgsefWVFTBjzUU9KrC9SvppagbeWwFPzO-UH61DD-w6AQyHuvQvoLDYtr-vGungaVLA_lvi7vHsPpa7aoJ9sU/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXa6Y6As02N1Ku3GXABre94VdwBemmZbKuzSnpQkP8ul4u8jTPaX3OrtLgsefWVFTBjzUU9KrC9SvppagbeWwFPzO-UH61DD-w6AQyHuvQvoLDYtr-vGungaVLA_lvi7vHsPpa7aoJ9sU/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOmP4iSiTnwGc0jcZj_0kvtqRfXteRaNL_rZfMwjporhyphenhyphend7LOyiTlncZWoXTQ_DPabyKjGPl5Vl_bJbLYhoUGiGWuA1CI_vwp1HIgBIOEMoo6C1D2ZSoOTW-PiIr4d9pNBIxuz7GX4glo/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="1047" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOmP4iSiTnwGc0jcZj_0kvtqRfXteRaNL_rZfMwjporhyphenhyphend7LOyiTlncZWoXTQ_DPabyKjGPl5Vl_bJbLYhoUGiGWuA1CI_vwp1HIgBIOEMoo6C1D2ZSoOTW-PiIr4d9pNBIxuz7GX4glo/w588-h296/image.png" width="588" /></a></div></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span><b><u> Chart 1</u></b> </span><span style="font-size: x-small;">- The green line includes all potentially available capacity whether currently in use or not. Some adjustments have been made to the red line to take account of the temporary loss of two gas and one oil </span><span style="font-size: x-small;">generators .</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The above graph shows how Ireland's electricity supply position has evolved since the height of the building boom in 2006. The green line shows the total generation capacity that consumers must pay for including wind energy. As you can see the gap between the green line and peak demand in blue has increased exponentially in tandem with the building of new wind farms in yellow and new power stations in red. This gap is a large part of the reason why electricity bills have soared in recent years as the capital element of all of this capacity must be financed through bills regardless of how much energy they produce. So with all of this excess capacity, how is it that we are facing the prospect of blackouts? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The red line is dispatchable plant, that is, plant that can be switched on at a moment's notice as required. The main ones in Ireland are gas, coal and oil power stations. The interconnector to England (EWIC) is also included in this however it's debatable how dispatchable this is in light of recent events (more on this later). Peat is also dispatchable but two of those power stations were closed down in 2020 leaving only one remaining peat station in Edenderry which also runs on biomass. It is due to be closed down in 2023. It has now finally being accepted by almost everyone (apart from the Green Party Energy Minister ?) that wind is not dispatchable and during long periods of low wind as we have had this year it is really the red line that we are relying on to keep the lights on.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The red line takes a noticeable dip after 2020. This is to take account of the loss of three power stations during 2021 - Huntstown 400MW, Whitegate 444MW and Tarbert 243MW. This has returned us to 2007 levels of dispatchable plant. This shouldn't present a serious problem, we managed okay back then. However, there are two main differences between now and back in the Tiger days :</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">1) Peak demand has increased by about 10%. The <a href="https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#roi/demand">peak of 5,357MW was reached in December 2020</a>. It is likely that this will increase further this winter which means the gap between the red and the blue line in Chart 1 will narrow even further. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">2) The rate of forced outages has increased dramatically in recent years. <a href="https://www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/208281-All-Island-Generation-Capacity-Statement-LR13A.pdf">According to Eirgrid</a>, the forced outage rate went from a low of about 3% in 2016 to a high of about 16% in 2021. The forced outage rate is the rate at which power stations are breaking down. Power stations are becoming less reliable and not just old ones. One reason for this is that they are switching on and off too much to balance the wind (more<a href="http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/energy-regulator-existing-fleet-has.html"> here</a>) . </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The situation then is precarious enough but what happens if the UK does not have spare energy to give to us over the interconnector ? This has become a greater risk as energy shortages have recently become a major political issue in the UK. Chart 2 shows what happens when the EWIC is no longer available :</span></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWm61IyIkHzMNBmc0S0NW8Mo39v5cz1GrhnxWmRug-k-avLhNwm_UZf5oMIYjV7ByBakX2wn6WX81CpW7JHzd1WBGHDj2mUuR6bD16Al3M2pA_8YAwSnzP7jx8-oUnKEQNlPIvQ3DcRP0/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="1047" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWm61IyIkHzMNBmc0S0NW8Mo39v5cz1GrhnxWmRug-k-avLhNwm_UZf5oMIYjV7ByBakX2wn6WX81CpW7JHzd1WBGHDj2mUuR6bD16Al3M2pA_8YAwSnzP7jx8-oUnKEQNlPIvQ3DcRP0/w611-h308/image.png" width="611" /></a></div><br /><b><u>Chart 2</u></b></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is now a very small gap between the red and blue lines. 353MW to be exact. Which is about the size of a single power station. So another power station outage would leave us on the precipice and if the winter is a cold one demand will surely rise pushing us over the edge into blackout territory. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">To sum up here, it would take six events occurring at the same time to leave us in a very dangerous position - three of those are the three currently unavailable power stations not being repaired in time for winter, the fourth is the interconnector becoming useless, the fifth is either another power station breaking down or demand rising higher than last year. The trend for the fourth and fifth events is going the wrong way in all cases. The likelihood however of all 3 power stations not being repaired in time for winter is fairly slim although I have a feeling Whitegate may not be repaired by mid November as scheduled.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The sixth event is perhaps the biggest variable of all, the yellow line in the charts - wind energy. If there is plenty of it then <i>in theory</i> the majority of these events occurring simultaneously would not pose such a major problem. But if we have another lull as we have had this summer then that is a different story.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">I say, <i>in theory</i>, because it is slightly more complicated than that. Certain power stations are required to be operating at all times <a href="https://www.sem-o.com/documents/general-publications/Wk39_2021_Weekly_Operational_Constraints_Update_Rev1.pdf">to maintain the stability of the grid</a>. Currently that includes Moneypoint coal power station. Moneypoint happens to be the oldest power station on the grid so there is a risk to the entire grid if it alone suffers an outage. No amount of wind energy can replace the inertia that Moneypoint provides to the system. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">In any event, the demand of large energy users will most likely be cut before we get near the precarious position of all or most of these events occurring together. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Demand management they are calling it. Which is another form of blackout, just with a nicer name . </span></p><p><br /></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6298568350190982130.post-20572604766133158152021-09-18T10:29:00.011+01:002021-09-18T11:02:51.594+01:00Record Prices hit the Irish Electricity Market<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> On Thursday the 9th September, prices in the All Ireland Electricity Market hit record highs of €4,680 per MWh, well over 20 times the normal price :</span></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYbgriiAHX6U6qLmkuFgrI-_OT2_VpDD5JYekxh-f6Sjg_OMaTEDek4XdlHkIAgLDS-7Cfghkc0qZAhwPjYXZd6Yl3QXkEyT9n8rMqJIlftwiWW37_QZNm8Rg_7p6kknyjJeRclvfX4Y/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="251" data-original-width="588" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYbgriiAHX6U6qLmkuFgrI-_OT2_VpDD5JYekxh-f6Sjg_OMaTEDek4XdlHkIAgLDS-7Cfghkc0qZAhwPjYXZd6Yl3QXkEyT9n8rMqJIlftwiWW37_QZNm8Rg_7p6kknyjJeRclvfX4Y/w640-h274/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>The scale here is from €0 to €5,000 MWh</i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7qlgwiDyCbEyrs65oHp632izjNzUGoH_EuyRb1-nXoH-fjtNphLgYsb7riCmyGmQd-y5CLuoDO4cQVjxixTZX3LcJK2Rmwvdp8no2Wb8bMF24Gv7Yh-8TzVV2HNyBpM9spLGi0XCFan0/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="172" data-original-width="564" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7qlgwiDyCbEyrs65oHp632izjNzUGoH_EuyRb1-nXoH-fjtNphLgYsb7riCmyGmQd-y5CLuoDO4cQVjxixTZX3LcJK2Rmwvdp8no2Wb8bMF24Gv7Yh-8TzVV2HNyBpM9spLGi0XCFan0/w640-h195/image.png" title="What a normal day looks like, prices rise to about €200 MWh" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: xx-small;">What a normal day looks like, prices rise to about €150 MWh</span></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">These prices may have had something to do with the UK switching on coal plant that same week, the cost of which can be very high. Margins are set to get even tighter in the UK as this week one of the interconnectors to France went on fire causing wholesale prices to rise even higher there. Low outputs of wind energy have plagued both Ireland and the UK for many months now. In essence, high prices in the electricity market go hand in hand with low amounts of reliable generation.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There have been three Amber Alerts and seven Notifications of Tight Generation Margins issued this month in the Single Electricity Market (SEM). An Amber Alert means<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">there was expected to be enough energy to meet demand, but possibly not enough in reserve should something go wrong. They can also be issued if there are significant frequency / voltage deviations which can happen when there aren't enough large power stations on the grid. The notification of Tight Generation Margins seems to be a prelude to an Amber Alert. </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">System Alerts can go from Alert (Amber) to Emergency (Red) to Blackout (Blue) and finally to a Restoration state. Up to the end of August of this year there have been six system alerts on the grid. In the previous decade, they averaged just one per year.</span></span></div><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>Irish Energy http://www.blogger.com/profile/16354100971015557625noreply@blogger.com3