CO2 Emissions Variations in CCGTs Used to Balance Wind in Ireland

There's an interesting analysis of CCGT emissions and how it is affected by high wind generation along with an interesting discussion posted over at Energy Matters website :

http://euanmearns.com/co2-emissions-variations-in-ccgts-used-to-balance-wind-in-ireland/ 

Fred Udo Talk - Wind in the Irish Grid

Wind Energy Debate : Who is right - Alex White or Fred Udo ?

Alex White, lawyer and Trotskyite                                             Fred Udo, distinguished Dutch engineer

Ireland's Energy Minister, Alex White, was interviewed by RTE radio yesterday. It can be listened to here :

RTE Radio 1, This Week: Ireland and Wind Power

It was a groundbreaking interview in a way, as it was the first time the technical nuts and bolts of wind energy policy was discussed in the mainstream Irish media :

Richard Crowley, interviewer : What is the ratio of wind energy to CO2 emissions savings ?

Alex White, Energy Minister : We reduced CO2 emissions by 2.6 Megatonnes.

Lo and behold, our energy minister does not know this crucial ratio ! The answer (for 2012) is that for each kWh of wind generated, associated emissions and fossil fuel savings are 0.33 kWh* due to increased ramping and cycling of gas plants (well below 1MW wind to 1MW savings as often claimed). This ratio will get worse with very high penetrations of wind. Recent analysis by Irish Energy Blog shows that wind reduced gas imports by just 2% year on year in 2014.

His lack of technical knowledge was shown once again when the minister referred to two Canadian reports into health effects of wind turbines but could not say what the setback distances were that were used in these reports. If anybody knows which reports he was referring to please do let me know.

These are just a sample of our Energy Minister's lack of in depth knowledge of his brief displayed during the interview (e.g. comparing cost of biomass with wind). Have a listen yourself.

Fred Udo's excellent reports can be read here :

http://fredudo.home.xs4all.nl/Zwaaipalen/17E_Wind_in_the_Irish_grid_SEAI_report_2015.html

Oh and by the way it's Udo - not U.D.O !



*Correction to original ratio of 54% by Fred Udo

54% is the part calculated within the framework of SEAI.

Additional losses: 

Self energy plus extra HV lines: 10%

The SEAI calculation takes only the static behavior of the generators.

Indication: The CO2 emission calculated by SEAI/Eirgrid is 7% too low.

If one attributes one third of this to wind and the other ⅔ to the daily ramping, one loses another 10%

The total efficiency of wind is then 33%.

Analysis by Dr Fred Udo challenges accuracy of SEAI report

The reduction of CO2 emissions by Irish wind energy

Last year, SEAI issued a (revised) report on savings in the Irish system due to wind for 2012. I pointed out in a previous post that some of the assumptions they used resulted in greater CO2 savings than would have been the case in reality.

Dr Fred Udo has done an excellent analysis on this report, using more valid assumptions than the ones used in the SEAI report. He concludes that :

1. SEAI admits there is increased fuel use due to the insertion of wind power in the grid.
2. The authors try to minimize the efficiency losses by inflating the use of OCGT in the reference case.
3. The CO2 calculation used in the PLEXOS model (used by both SEAI and Eirgrid) produces too low CO2 intensities, hence even the 30% loss found in the corrected calculation is too low.
4. Corrected for self-energy (the energy required to build a new generation system around wind) we find a loss of 40% (from SEAI's calculated savings) for 15,3% wind penetration.

Dr Udo makes the distinction between a system with lots of hydro, like Denmark, and one without. Hydro is an efficient back up for wind as it can be turned on and off instantly, while gas generation loses its efficiency with increased amounts of intermittent wind. Yet, the Irish government continue to draw comparisons between Ireland and Denmark.

The full report can be read here :

http://www.clepair.net/Udo20150831-e.html

New Report by Dr Fred Udo - Wind Turbine Build-outs and CO2 emissions in Ireland

Dr Fred Udo, a distinguished engineer from CERN in Geneva, now retired, has published a new analysis on the Irish electricity system. In his previous report (link here), he used CO2 emission data from Eirgrid to show the inefficiencies created in the system by adding more wind.     In this latest report, he uses fuel input data from SEAI to show that the Eirgrid data actually underestimates CO2 emissions by about 6% and therefore the losses referred to in his previous report were too low.

The conclusions are really a damning indictment of the energy policy that resulted in such huge investment in wind and interconnector infrastructure. There is also an added sting in the tail - the investment of billions of Euros in new CCGT plant that could consume fuel more efficiently than before has been pretty much a waste because they have been forced to run inefficiently.

The performance of the system in 2011 shows clearly, that without the extra windmills and without the EDW link, but with the new CCGT gas units operating one does better than with all the new wind turbines and EDW link.

Link to view Dr Udo's Report :

https://www.scribd.com/doc/258476475/Art-Wind-Ireland-pdf

Also, a link for download :

http://www.filedropper.com/artwindireland