Rainy Day Blues

It's been a very strange six months in Irish history. It began in October when the finance minister failed to top up the Rainy Day Fund he had set up the previous year. At a time when the economy was very strong, this seemed like a reckless move and so it has has proven to be in light of recent events. Unfortunately, government ideas of merit are not followed through with the same enthusiasm as the bad ones are.

After this, an early election was called in January 2020, which led to an historic result, but one that was still very much in favor of the status quo.

Then, a month later, as government formation talks continued to drag out, the coronavirus pandemic landed on Ireland's shores. This event has shaken the global order at its very core. The consequences of open borders and free trade are now very real for everyone. Critical thinkers of the global based economic system, who were branded outdated and backward as recently as January during the election debates, are now being proven correct weeks later. It was the governments allegiance to this system that prevented them from acting early,  closing the airports, and putting travelers from Italy in quarantine as the Icelandic government did right from the start. A contact from Iceland wrote to me :

Iceland put everyone in quarantine coming from Italy very early on and a few days later everybody coming from a ski resort in Austria. Now there are more than 6,800 people in quarantine at home. Last week everybody living in Iceland (not tourists) coming home from abroad had to go into quarantine. Authorities also put a big effort into contact tracing. A team of policemen and health workers (at least 60 people) trace every single case. Everyday 50% of new confirmed cases are amongst those in quarantine.

Back in Ireland, a match with Italy on the 7th March was cancelled but thousands of Italians were still allowed to wander the capital Dublin that weekend. In the week before the scheduled match cases in Italy had jumped by 5000. There is some talk about China not releasing information quick enough. I disagree, the authorities in Europe had plenty of notice, they just failed to act decisively. Iceland have managed to slow the virus, comparatively speaking. Since the 11th March, cases in Iceland  have increased by about 12 times, whilst in Ireland cases have increased by about 50 times. The cases are most likely understated in Ireland, because Iceland have tested 3% of their population, including people who do not have symptoms.

Now that we are in lockdown, climate change is well and truly off the agenda. Which reminds me, if we are in the middle of a climate crisis with the ice melting as the schoolchildren (sorry, teachers) are so fond of reminding us, why were schoolchildren flying fossil fueled airplanes to Italy to ski in the snow in February on their holidays ?

Record Imports From China Has Offset Emissions Savings in Ireland

by Owen Martin

Ireland now imports a record € 5.3 billion of goods per year from China, higher than during the peak boom year of 2007 and double that of 2011. China is the biggest emitter on the planet so these imports come with a very high carbon footprint. Based on calculations made for other countries, I have calculated CO2 emissions of 6.1 million tonnes (MT) associated with our Chinese imports for last year.

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in Ireland in the year 2000 was roughly 17 MT. This has now reduced to around 12 MT . Imports from China since 2000 have increased by € 3.8bn, a consequent emissions rise for these imports of almost 4.3MT. 

So at a global scale, Ireland's efforts to reduce emissions in the electricity sector have been mostly offset by our increased outsourcing of emissions to China. 

This is something that's completely overlooked by the climate change advisory panel which essentially treats Ireland as an isolated entity with a separate climate to the rest of the world. In their most recent report, international trade only gets a single mention while carbon tax gets mentioned 57 times. China fails to get even a single mention. 



Sources:

1) https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/goodsexportsandimports/

https://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=tsa01

2) USA imports from china was approx $400bn in 2012. Associated CO2 emissions was 512 MT according to carbonbrief.org. Which works out at 1.28 MT per $billion of imports, converted to euros is 1.14 MT per € 1 bn.  Emissions in china are up since 2012 according to the Guardian, so these emissions are actually understated.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/anaswanson/2014/11/12/heres-one-thing-the-us-does-export-to-china-carbon-dioxide/#6f80b8e16a1a

http://www.carbonbrief.org/media/342862/ukcarbonexports7.png

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/this-is-what-the-us-imports-from-china/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-news-global-carbon-emissions-jump-to-all-time-high-in-2018


3) EPA emissions from Electricity :

Figure 3: http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/ghgemissions2017/Report_GHG%201990-2017%20November%202018_Website.pdf