The Motor Industry is Unsustainable because of Debt

Gross new lending for car purchase was €2.1 billion over the past twelve months, the largest amount of new lending recorded since the series began. Non-PCP hire purchase agreements were the main driver of the increase in new lending

- The Central Bank of Ireland, August 2019

The number of motor cars could be reduced, if the Government really wanted to do it, by capping car loans for petrol and diesel vehicles. 

Instead, they prefer the more trendy and coffers-friendly solution of carbon taxes. 

Green Wave or Green Ripple ?

The Irish media were in exuberant mood after an exit poll showed that Greens were dominating the elections. Roll on more carbon taxes urged almost every jet-set loving journalist.

The results are now in. The Green Party garnered only 5.6% of the vote nationally in the local elections and 11% in the European elections. The biggest winners were the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail parties, both of which decided not to impose carbon tax increases in the last budget.

The Green Wave became a Green Ripple. The highest concentration of so called "journalists" in Ireland is in Dublin, where the Greens garnered the most votes, and that may explain the lob sided Green Wave hysteria the rest of us had to endure in the past week.

The fanatically EU devoted media outlets behind the exit polls were in fact in breach of EU law, namely Section 30 of the European Parliamentary Election Regulations 2004, which states :

Prohibition on publication of exit polls

30.—(1) No person shall in the case of a European Parliamentary election publish before the close of the poll—

(a)any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted, or

(b)any forecast as to the result of the election which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.

(2) If a person acts in contravention of paragraph (1), he shall be liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding level 5 on the standard scale or to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 6 months.

Record Imports From China Has Offset Emissions Savings in Ireland

by Owen Martin

Ireland now imports a record € 5.3 billion of goods per year from China, higher than during the peak boom year of 2007 and double that of 2011. China is the biggest emitter on the planet so these imports come with a very high carbon footprint. Based on calculations made for other countries, I have calculated CO2 emissions of 6.1 million tonnes (MT) associated with our Chinese imports for last year.

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in Ireland in the year 2000 was roughly 17 MT. This has now reduced to around 12 MT . Imports from China since 2000 have increased by € 3.8bn, a consequent emissions rise for these imports of almost 4.3MT. 

So at a global scale, Ireland's efforts to reduce emissions in the electricity sector have been mostly offset by our increased outsourcing of emissions to China. 

This is something that's completely overlooked by the climate change advisory panel which essentially treats Ireland as an isolated entity with a separate climate to the rest of the world. In their most recent report, international trade only gets a single mention while carbon tax gets mentioned 57 times. China fails to get even a single mention. 



Sources:

1) https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/goodsexportsandimports/

https://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=tsa01

2) USA imports from china was approx $400bn in 2012. Associated CO2 emissions was 512 MT according to carbonbrief.org. Which works out at 1.28 MT per $billion of imports, converted to euros is 1.14 MT per € 1 bn.  Emissions in china are up since 2012 according to the Guardian, so these emissions are actually understated.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/anaswanson/2014/11/12/heres-one-thing-the-us-does-export-to-china-carbon-dioxide/#6f80b8e16a1a

http://www.carbonbrief.org/media/342862/ukcarbonexports7.png

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/this-is-what-the-us-imports-from-china/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-news-global-carbon-emissions-jump-to-all-time-high-in-2018


3) EPA emissions from Electricity :

Figure 3: http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/ghgemissions2017/Report_GHG%201990-2017%20November%202018_Website.pdf

Switzerland and Sweden Used as Models for Irish Carbon Tax

A Benchmark for the Carbon Tax, no Benchmark for cheap electricity  

As part of a comprehensive policy package, carbon taxes will have a central role in guiding the energy transition by providing the economic incentive to switch from high-carbon to low- or zero-carbon technologies and products. In Ireland, the Climate Change Advisory Council has recommended a phased increase in the carbon tax from the current €20 per tonne to €80 per tonne by 2030. In terms of benchmarking, it is worth noting that some countries already have carbon taxes at the upper end or even in excess of this range, with the Swedish carbon tax currently at $139 (e112) and Switzerland at $101 (e81).

The Central Bank have now thrown their weight behind the sudden political push for an increase of the carbon tax in Ireland. Their recent report about climate change and it's alleged impacts on the economy fail to address the issue of the unsustainable levels of government and private debt in Ireland, which allow us to live far beyond our means and consume resources at a far greater rate than previous generations. There is no mention of unsustainable government spending and the bloated welfare state (The cost for a new hospital in Dublin has risen from €400m to nearly €2bn, welfare spending still stands at €20bn despite lowest unemployment for over a decade).

The Central Bank fails to understand that emissions are coupled with economic growth so that if climate change were really having an impact on the economy, we would be seeing economic decline right now, followed by a consequent reduction in emissions. They make the observation that 1991-2016 temperatures were higher than the period for 1960-1990, which actually supports the natural cyclical theory of climate change rather than the man made theory.  They also claim that insurance payouts due to extreme weather events are up. The 1940s were perhaps the worst decade for flooding and crop devastation in recent history but I can find no evidence that there were any insurance payouts at all. But I want to focus on one particular part of their report, the carbon tax. 

The purpose of the Central Bank presentation on climate change appears to be to groom Irish people for more taxes, specifically carbon taxes. 

They present Sweden and Switzerland as models for Ireland to follow in this regard.  What they fail to state is that Sweden has electricity prices at least 25% less than Ireland. But more importantly, Switzerland, which has a carbon tax equal to that proposed by Irish politicians, has had one of the lowest electricity prices in the world for many years, roughly half that of Ireland, which now ranks as one of the most expensive countries for electricity in the world.  Switzerland generates most of it's electricity from hydro and nuclear (as does Sweden). How is it that Ireland's indigenous wind industry cannot compete with Swiss hydro, an indigenous renewable source that does not lead to high Swiss electricity bills ?

The examples of Sweden and Switzerland actually undermine the central banks case for more carbon taxes in Ireland as it shows that we are already paying comparatively much higher for energy. A carbon tax similar to what was introduced into these countries could make Ireland the most uncompetitive country in the world for energy with actual knock on impacts for our economy far worse than "climate change". 

One could have perhaps made a better case for the carbon tax if wind energy had led to the cheap energy revolution that Irish people were promised.  But as we all know that never materialized.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20180807-1

Carbon Emissions and Country of Origin

An interesting point made about country of origin by Val Martin that was published this week in farming newspaper, The Farmers Journal.

Having studied the subject for many years, I believe that the theory that burning fossil fuel 

can change the climate is deeply flawed. Farmers are coming under attack to change tried 

and trusted production practices which is not in their best interests or the interest of our environment.

The Paris Climate Accord had no provision to cut the concentration of carbon in the air. 

Instead it forces developed countries with high wealth to population ratios to severely 

cut manufacturing and agricultural output. It allows countries with low wealth to population 

ratios to continue with and grow their fossil fuel based industries the products of which 

they can export. There are notable parallels between this policy and that of globalists, 

communists, socialists and greens.

Fuel from the ground of producing countries such as Saudi Arabia bears no restrictions until 

it arrives in Ireland where it is counted as part of out carbon emissions. Beef, lamb and 

dairy products from the ground of Ireland is counted as part of Ireland's carbon footprint and 

it is now proposed to restrict, tax and drive out production. Why is the same standard 

not applied to the country of origin everywhere? The answer is that some governments 

would not accept it, while others like ours do.

When this all started, we were told wind farms would replace fossil fuel which would 

end production of coal, oil and gas in producing counties. The idea was to use the weather 

to change the weather. With 3,000 MW of wind already installed, its not working. 

The financial accounts of most wind companies show the wind does not blow as expected

and some are struggling to pay back their capital loans. Meanwhile the German 
Chancellor Angela Merkel who was one of the main drivers behind all this, has just signed
a 9 billion euro deal with Russia for a new gas pipeline on top of those already in place.

If this carry on were properly exposed on radio or television it would not last a week, but 

the media are in on it and will not allow any debate. It would pay farmers to take a little 

time to study it and if they do, they will see their interests are about to be hit very hard.

Carbon Tax Increase

State enforced poverty on the way

Leo Varadkar has said that in the next budget the carbon tax will have to increase to meet our climate change obligations. At the same time, he said that there would be increases in social welfare expenditure further contributing to our unsustainable government spending and debt bubble.

The carbon tax rate is currently €20 per tonne, the Unelected Citizen's Assembly have called for it to be raised to € 70. It will lead to an increase in heating and motor costs at a time when electricity bills have also increased and are among the highest in Europe, hitting the poor the most. In essence, this is the Irish government enforcing poverty on the Irish people through constant meddling in the energy market with taxes and levies, in defiance of the Irish Constitution which states that :

The State pledges itself to safeguard with especial care the economic interests of the weaker sections of the community, and, where necessary, to contribute to the support of the infirm, the widow, the orphan, and the aged. Varadkar says he will implement "complimentary measures" for those worst effected by the carbon tax. A case of the government trying to solve problems that itself has created, at the expense of the taxpayer, of course.

At the same time, they are hypocritically backing the push from big corporations for power guzzling data centres which ESB Networks recently said would lead to a significant surge in demand for electricity generation :

"over the past five years new users - largely data centres - have used capacity on the network that historically would have catered for 30 years load growth. To put it in context, the current load in Dublin is around 1,200MW with potentially more than 1,000MW of data centre requirements to be connected".

The Grange Castle area in West Dublin has seen a raft of applications for data centres. To power them, at least two gas power stations are planned for Grange Castle and Clondalkin which will drastically increase emissions.

The Climate Change Advisory Group which includes economist John Fitzgerald of ESRI claim we need to reduce emissions by 1 million tonnes of carbon per year.  This is impossible with the planned data centres in the pipeline. 

Last year, total CO2 emissions from power stations in Dublin were 2.1 million tonnes (EPA). Using the above ESB figures, this means that an extra 1,000MW of data centres would lead to additional emissions of 1.8 million tonnes. The current generation fleet in Dublin is all gas powered, and it is assumed that the new generators would also be gas powered (one of the planned generators in West Dublin has said they will convert to biogas in 5 years - lets see, why not commence with biogas and save conversion costs?). 

So everyone is ignoring the elephant in the room and acting like a carbon tax will have an impact on our emissions, when in fact a limit on the number of data centres would have the most significant impact on reducing emissions. Our government somehow manages to worship at the alter of multinationals and genuflect to the climate god at the same time.

There are currently no politcal parties that I know of who oppose the carbon tax. Surely a great political opportunity to be had.




From the Sunday Times: 
• https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/dublins-big-data-centres-devour-all-the-power-tbq3xdfh2