Eirgrid to Underground New Grid Infrastructure

 Over the past decade, as many readers will know, there has been a huge furor in many communities north and south of the border about the North South Interconnector. With the main bone of contention being the decision by Eirgrid not to underground it. However, it looks like Eirgrid have finally learned a lesson from that and are now listening to communities. But surely this new approach by Eirgrid raises questions about their existing plans for the North South Interconnector ?

On the grid side, we have made three decisions in the past 12 months that we arguably might not have made five years ago. We declared that two major pieces of grid infrastructure are going underground. The first is in the Dublin-Kildare region where we have made the call and said a critical piece of west Dublin infrastructure is going to be underground.

We have said the line to Mayo will be underground and the converter station for the Celtic Interconnector, one of Ireland's most critical projects which will link us to France, will be located not beside the substation in Knockraha, but in an industrial site in Ballyadam. This is because that is what communities asked us to do - Mark Foley, CEO Eirgrid

Link :

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/joint_committee_on_environment_and_climate_action/2021-10-05/2/

Wasteful Spending Must be Cut in Wake of Coronavirus

Now that Ireland is entering a period of extended lockdown, which the people are complying with, people are asking what will the future hold.  Money will of course be tight in the future,  so wasteful spending will need to be curtailed.

The virus will simply not go away post lockdown but will be around in our environment for some considerable period of time. Quite considerable sums will have to be spent recalibrating the health service. In this context we have the European Investment Bank, the Commission's Bank, providing €530 million to fund the Celtic Interconnector to France:

https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/news-and-media/press-releases/Pages/Press-Release-Government-Secures-%E2%82%AC530m-EU-grant-for-Celtic-Interconnector.aspx   

We already have so much wind on the Irish grid, that huge surges occur whenever a low pressure system passes through. Not only are conventional plants being curtailed, but so to are the two Waste to Energy plants in Ireland, 50% of whose electrical output is renewable as that is the fraction of biomass in the incoming municipal waste. Their furnaces have to be maintained at a minimum of 850 C, to combust the incoming waste, so the steam is diverted away from the generators and into the cooling system. in 2018 these two plants curtailed the equivalent renewable electricity of 1.5 times what the Dart used that year, dumping instead the energy (in the case of Dublin Waste to Energy into Dublin Bay). As we know the whole programme is a mess.

If we consider the East West Interconnector built a few years ago from Malahide in Dublin to North Wales, this was a completely uneconomic project, as the Irish Academy of Engineers pointed out several times, neither was there any justification other than to facilitate more wind energy. Hence no commercial bank would have provided the funding. The EIB stepped in with a €300 million loan, the EU Commission gave direct funding of €100 and suddenly the €600 million project was viable. The UK paid not a penny for the infrastructure and our network charges on our electricity bill, which is around 30% of it, went up by about 5% to pay these loans back. We don't have those hundreds of millions to be just wasted in this manner in the months ahead, there is after all resonance in that we need ventilators not wind turbines. 


The millions to be spent on the North south Interconnector now also looks questionable. What of the billions being spent every year on NGOs ? In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, difficult financial decisions will have to be made to ensure essential services such as health and social welfare are maintained. Priorities will have to change.

North South Interconnector Update

In 2017, Eirgrid published a generation adequacy report that showed Northern Ireland in a net deficit position by 2021. 

This was partly the justification for the North South Interconnector :

But now in Eirgrid's most recent report, there is strangely no longer a capacity shortage for Northern Ireland :

It seems that Kilroot power station will be kept open for another few years. But even then, there is still no forecast deficit.  This means that the only justification for the interconnector now is to ensure the iSem (All Island single electricity market) functions as a single market. But as Pat Swords showed, at a cost of € 286 million, the payback for the project would be around 25 years, something that would not stack up in the private sector. 

North South Interconnector in Doubt Following Northern Ireland Ruling

An appeal court in Northern Ireland has ruled that civil servants could not give the green light to a controversial incinerator in Belfast in the absence of a full Executive in Stormont. This ruling will have consequences for another legal challenge in the North against the North South Intereconnector which was made on the same basis i.e. civil servants making a decision on large infrastructure projects in the absence of an Executive. 

While many will argue that this could lead to the lights going out in Northern Ireland, this blog has made the case that other options were never looked at and closed off from the beginning. More here and here. 

Power Stations to Close

New Single Electricity Market rules now in force will see capacity payments cut by 30%.  In some cases, the power stations may not receive any capacity payment at all.

The inevitable consequence of this is the closure of older power stations and less dispatchable plant available to keep the lights on. Dispatchable plant is plant that can be switched on quickly when required. Renewables like Wind energy are not dispatchable because their output is uncontrollable. Ireland (All Island) currently has about 10,000MW of dispatchable plant and about 4,000MW of wind energy. About 1,000MW of capacity will not qualify for capacity payments. This leaves around 9,000MW of dispatchable plant remaining.

	Dispatchable plant MW
Remaining dispatchable	9,046
Max demand (2010)	6,878
Capacity margin	2,168
Minimum new data centres	1,136
Capacity margin after data centres	1,032
Reserve Generation	500
Capacity Margin Net Surplus	532

When everything is accounted for, including periods of high demand such as occurred in winter 2010 and planned data centres, there is a capacity margin of 1,032MW. Reserve generation is required incase a power station trips out. Currently this is about 500MW. This leaves a net capacity margin of 532MW.

This is quite tight but what happens if Viridian shut down not one but both of their gas power stations in Dublin (they have notified the Regulator that they will close both).  

This would leave a capacity margin of just 132MW. It would be lunacy to allow this to happen as blackouts would be inevitable in a harsh winter.  Dublin would be at most risk where there is a requirement for two large power stations to be on load at all times (three if the UK interconnector is out). 

While it would reduce costs, a blackout would come at a greater cost. 

And what of Northern Ireland ?  Where is the surplus power to come from to export to the North through the North South Interconnector ? The new auction will result in the closure of power stations in the North (Kilroot and part of Ballylumford). Northern Ireland is already at risk of power shortages.

But don't worry the Energy Regulator knows what they are doing I hear you thinking ? Well, I will just leave this here :

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/today-with-sean-o-rourke/podcasts/ 

Look for Tuesday 30th January "Electricity Supply".

The interviewer asks the Regulator how much power do the Viridian power stations supply in percentage terms ? It's worrying that the Regulator had not checked this very important statistic. She replies that they are 800MW capacity so out of 9,000MW, it would be a bit less than 10%. But the 9,000MW is not demand, it's total capacity (capacity must be higher than demand). She also never mentioned the little problem of a minimum requirement for power stations in Dublin. Again, something I thought she should know. 



1) SEMO Auction Results - http://www.sem-o.com/ISEM/General/Capacity%20Market%20-%20Final%20Capacity%20Auction%20Results%20Report.pdf

2) Eirgrid Constraints in Dublin Region -  http://www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/Operational-Constraints-Update-January-2018.pdf

3) Planned Data Centres - http://www.iwea.com/industryreports

4) Maximum demand all time - http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/#all/demand

North South Interconnector - Worth the Money ?

Aside from the renewables aspect, the main justification for the North South interconnector is a deficit of reliable electricity generation in Northern Ireland.

Today, following the closure of old plant in the North, it is the South which is exporting its surplus electricity northwards - John Fitzgerald, economist.

Despite the signing of a local reserve services contract in 2015, the construction of the second North South Interconnector is the optimum solution available to alleviate this security of supply risk and allow the surplus of generation capacity which exists in Ireland to be counted towards security of supply in Northern Ireland - Eirgrid 2015.

Eirgrid now acknowledge that the commissioning of a new plant in Northern Ireland would help solve this problem :

In Northern Ireland, emissions legislation is causing a significant amount of plant to be restricted in its running hours, or to be decommissioned. This will lead to a deficit of supply. This situation would be alleviated by the second North-South Interconnector in 2021, or by the commissioning of new plant.

The assumption that South Ireland will have surplus generation to export to the North is now questionable due to new capacity market rules:

While we have reported a large surplus of plant in previous GCS reports, we now envisage that this surplus will be reduced if it is not required by the new Capacity Market. This is because the Capacity Market will only pay for enough generating units to meet the capacity requirement - Eirgrid 2017.

Interconnectors are fraught with all sorts of engineering and system problems. The interconnector from Northern Ireland to Scotland has suffered numerous faults and England no longer has enough surplus electricity to export to South Ireland through the undersea cable between the two countries (EWIC).  

The East-West interconnector (EWIC) connects the transmission systems of Ireland and Wales with a capacity of 500 MW in either direction. However, it is difficult to predict whether or not imports for the full 500 MW will be available at all times. Informed by the proposed I-SEM Capacity Market decision, we assume a 50% derating factor, i.e. 250 MW.

For the purposes of adequacy studies, we treat the Moyle interconnector similarly to EWIC, i.e. with a suitable capacity reliance (50% of 450 MW which gives 225 MW) to account for the uncertain availability of generation in Great Britain.

So assuming that the interconnector actually works for most of the time (granted this is less of a problem with overground land cables than it is with those placed under the sea), what happens if the exporting market does not have sufficient generation to export electricity through it ? Given the new capacity market rules and the planned data centres which will drive demand for electricity upwards in South Ireland, a new power station in Belfast would probably be the least costly and most secure solution to Northern Ireland's problems. 

Furthermore, if the new All Island capacity market will pay for surplus generation in the South to export to the North, then why not just allow the capacity market to pay for that generating plant in the North and save money on a completely new grid ?

ESRI Report on Brexit

The ESRI report on Brexit warns about the implications for the All Island Electricity Market. ESRI economic forecasts have being proven wrong before, most famously when they predicted a "soft landing" in 2008. This recent report seems to have flaws as well.

•  The first point that needs to be noted is the fact that an all-island electricity market has existed since 2007. Interconnection between Ireland and Northern Ireland is particularly important for Northern Ireland which relies on electricity imports from Ireland to make up for insufficient local electricity generation capacity.

Northern Ireland has a capacity shortage. Now that they are outside the EU, they can ignore EU Directives on power stations, reverse the closure of their coal plants, and open a new power station if required. This is an easy solution to their problems, it's also cheaper than building the North South Interconnector, but somehow ESRI failed to spot it.

• Hence the UK government considered trading in renewable electricity with Ireland, which could have reduced the cost of UK compliance. However, negotiations on this strategy stalled because of a reluctance to pay the necessary subsidy to Irish producers, in spite of the fact that it would have reduced the overall cost of compliance for the UK. 

Cost was only one issue. The UK officials realized that there was a high correlation of wind between the two islands i.e when wind is blowing in the UK, it is blowing in Ireland and vice versa. This reduces the benefits of importing wind from Ireland.

•  If the UK left the EU it would no longer be subject to EU regulatory measures to deal with a possible crisis situation in the case of a gas or oil shortage. Ireland would then have to consider how best to provide protection from very unlikely, but potentially catastrophic outcomes. Gas supplies are of crucial importance to Ireland because gas plays a central role in electricity generation. Because of this, any interruption to supply could have very serious consequences. 

I thought that Ireland's goal was to be energy independent by building wind farms ? So why will there be a problem if UK can't supply gas to us anymore ? An inherent, but unwritten, assumption in the ESRI report is that investment in wind energy will not make us materially any less dependent on gas imports.  So why are they pushing the wind policy ?

In reality, should a wide gap open up between UK and Ireland in terms of one country pursuing EU energy policy for the next 10-20 years and the other not, then Ireland will become more and more dependent on UK for electricity. EU energy policy may well result in the closure of uneconomical Irish power stations whilst UK will be free to build more.

Brexit and the North South Interconnector

With recent Brexit polls in the UK showing the Leave side just ahead, I wonder what this will mean for the North South Interconnector project. Should UK leave the EU, then Northern Ireland will be free to decide how they deal with their generation capacity shortage themselves. Currently, EU Regulations are forcing restrictions on fossil fuel plant in Northern Ireland and diverting investment to unreliable renewables. Once outside the EU, NI could free themselves from these restrictions and simply build whatever conventional generation capacity is required to fill their capacity shortage.

Under these circumstances, the € 286 million interconnector project would be lying idle most of the time. If anything, Ireland would be importing the cheaper electricity from NI, not the other way around as is the current intention.

The justifications for this project are seriously undermined in the event of Brexit.

Who pays for the North South Interconnector and why?

Guest post by Pat Swords. 

Is the North South Interconnector worth the investment, who pays and who benefits ?  

The amount of money we are paying in our electricity bills for grid expansions and the lack of reasons why, is starting to reach epidemic proportions. The recent Energy Green Paper in its Figure 5 shows the breakdown of the domestic electricity rate, in which transmission and distribution, i.e. the grid, amount to some 34% of the domestic electricity price (an additional VAT at 13.5% is then applied).

So we can deduce that nearly a third of what we pay on our final bill is going to fund the grid. As such then, one should be highly concerned, when in 2011 Newspaper articles entitled "Ireland's big hope or just hot air" are published. These summarise the position of the Irish Academy of Engineering with respect to the proposed roll out of the renewable energy programme and supporting grid infrastructure.

As the article highlights:

• Between now and 2015, billpayers will also pay at least €1.4 billion in grid development and improvement costs that are necessary for the development of more wind farms, according to grid operator Eirgrid.
• In addition, there is the €500 million cost to billpayers of the East-West interconnector, also needed to facilitate more wind energy, it says.
• Another aspect of all this, perhaps indicating the true total cost of all of this wind energy, is that the ESB in 2008 announced plans to invest €11 billion in the grid and a further €11 billion in renewables and smart meters by 2020, although ESB sources say this strategy may be revised. 

Therefore, we are looking at potentially some €13 billion to be spent on the grid, both for high voltage (Eirgrid) and medium voltage (ESB), in order to facilitate all of this renewable programme. This is a staggering amount of money. Indeed to put it in its context, if we go back to Figure 5 in the Green paper, some 46% of the domestic rate is the wholesale price and 80% of that is fuel for the power stations. In other words, a third of what you pay in your final bill is fuel for the power stations. Yet it can quite easily be calculated, that if there was no wind energy, Irish thermal power stations could be kept running for a fuel cost amounting to some €1 billion per year. 

If one was to use simple maths and ignore such issues as that some electricity is sold at a lower rate to industry, one gets the simple answer, in that if we didn't progress all this grid expansion to facilitate renewables, we could have free electricity instead for four years. Note: This is not an unreasonable conclusion, there is no such thing as a 'free lunch' and all these billions for investment in renewable infrastructure has to come out of unnecessarily soaring electricity bills.

So let's examine the roll out of the North South Interconnector and particularly what's in it for us the consumer in the Republic of Ireland. Why should we be paying for this 400 kV line running 103 km through the Republic and a further 34 km through N. Ireland? In essence, it doesn't take a genius to figure out, that as more three quarters of the infrastructure lies in the Republic, we are the ones with the biggest cost exposure. As to what this cost exposure actually is can be seen in the European Platform Against Wind Farms (EPAW) submission on the North South Interconnector:

 http://westcorkwind.com/images/Adobe/EPAW_N-S.pdf

As Section 6.6 of this clarifies; Jenny Pyper, who is the Chief Executive of the Utility Regulator in Northern Ireland, stated to the Oireachtas Committee on the 16th June 2015:

• I should apologise for the absence of a crucial bullet point which provides the total project cost of the North-South interconnector, including overhead line, land acquisition, substation and other costs. The total project cost is €286 million

• It is important to understand that, while the security of supply concerns do not directly apply to us - we probably have more comfort in the Republic in terms of the capacity available for generation - there is an argument that we have an excess that cannot flow to Northern Ireland because the second interconnector is not available at the moment, which is imposing costs on consumers. This extra cost, which we think at minimum is about €10 million per annum, is the primary concern from the Republic's point of view.

So let's think this through; the Republic of Ireland doesn't need to import any power from Northern Ireland, as it has a surplus of generation capacity. Jenny Pyper is claiming that the presence of the interconnector would lead to greater efficiencies in thermal power plant generation, which would amount to some €10 million per annum. This is complete peanuts in an all island electricity market, which pays each year some €2.75 billion to generators, to which grid costs, etc.have to be added before the final consumer price is arrived at. Furthermore, it is generally recognised that the economic lifespan of high voltage transmission systems is 45 to 50 years, so the simple payback on this proposed North South Interconnector project would be in the order of half its expected lifespan. In engineering terms this is simply absurd.

So why are we doing this, when clearly the bulk of the economic and environmental costs are to be picked up by the consumers in the Republic of Ireland, who have absolutely no need for this investment? 

It doesn't take long to figure out that all of this investment is for the 'Glory' of even more renewables. As Section 4.1 of the EPAW document shows:

• The governments of Ireland and Northern Ireland have both set targets of meeting 40% of electricity consumption from renewable sources by 2020. This is expected to be achieved mainly by significant amount of new wind generation capacity in both jurisdictions. The RIDP project is required to facilitate the connection of wind generation in Donegal in Ireland and in the west and north of Northern Ireland, where the renewable resources are largely located. The additional grid transfer capacity provided by this North South 400 kV interconnection project is essential to allow access to a larger market for the new renewable generation, particularly for Northern Ireland wind generation in times of high wind conditions and low local demand. This project therefore indirectly allows the connection of 600 MW in Northern Ireland, i.e. the equivalent of the additional grid transfer capacity initially provided by the link.

So what does this mean in real terms? Well first of all the power generation situation in N. Ireland is in a complete crises, as nobody will invest in the conventional generation necessary to keep the lights on. This is described in detail in Sections 5.2 and 5.3 of the EPAW document, but in simple terms why would one put hard earned cash into a conventional generation plant there, when the market place is to be turned over to the new renewable generators and the power stations in the Republic of Ireland. The latter to have improved access through the capacity of this new interconnector. The whole thing is actually quite nasty, Government funded renewables and interconnectors are putting conventional plants out of business in N. Ireland and the fact that there are no longer sufficient conventional generators left in N. Ireland is then being used as the justification for those same projects. Yet if those State sponsored schemes weren't there, there would be plenty of companies interested in the N. Ireland power generation market. 

In fact you couldn't make it up, consumers in the Republic of Ireland are now to finance ill-conceived interconnector projects, which would never happen without massive subsidies, while the alternative makes absolute 100% sense. Finance nothing and let N. Ireland have a proper vibrant electricity market, in which its own electricity consumers finance the necessary convention power generation it requires. Not only is this proper economics and provides the security of supply that N. Ireland requires, but it prevents the completely unnecessary scarring of the Irish countryside with over 137 km of massive pylons, associated medium voltage transmission lines and more than 300 additional wind turbines in N. Ireland alone. 

The future of power generation in Northern Ireland - Part 3

Will the North South interconnector resolve the security of supply problem in Northern Ireland?

In 2009 the international engineering company Poyry completed an extensive engineering study that included over 20,000 hours of technical effort entitled: “Impact of intermittency: How wind variability could change the shape of the British and Irish electricity markets”. As the press release concluded:

• As far as investment is concerned, the drivers for new thermal plant are not encouraging. According to Pöyry, such plants will have to operate at low and highly uncertain loads and, under current market arrangements, the likely returns do not appear good.

• The report says: “If significant wind energy is achieved, along the lines required by the 2020 renewable targets, we predict power stations which are built now will face much more uncertain revenues in the future. For example, any generation built before 2016 to cover closure, under emission regulations, of existing coal-fired power stations, would face a volatile future, uncertain to the point that plant may only operate for a few hours one year and then hundreds of hours the next year.”

• And with the level of wind energy envisaged on the system by 2030, the variation in prices will be extreme. There will be periods of negative prices and very short periods with prices at almost £8000/MWh.

Note: The latter price is some two hundred times what is currently typically achieved in the market place for power supply to the grid. Both Eirgrid and National Grid, as steering committee members, participated in the above study by Poyry.

There is no doubt that Johnathan Swift of Gulliver’s Travels fame would have recognised this for what it is, outright stupidity. However, he was equally adept at putting it: “It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into”. The lack of thought and analysis to justify this renewable programme, not least that analysis, which was legally required but never completed, is simply astounding. Taking away some 40% of the electricity market from reliable dispatchable power plants and handing it over to unreliable intermittent wind turbines, means that those dispatchable power plants no longer get the run times they used to and when they are running, it is often in a highly inefficient stop / start mode to balance the intermittent wind energy input to the grid. So a good solid business venture becomes a lousy business and it makes absolutely no sense, to invest in new infrastructure in a jurisdiction, which is pursuing such an energy policy.

Hence the reason why AES is simply not interested in completing the DeNOx upgrade to Kilroot or investing in new generation capacity to replace Ballylumford B. The fact that decisions have been taken by both administrations, as documented in the Eirgrid Planning Report Volume 2A Section 4.2.4 ‘The Position of the Governments and Regulatory Authorities’, to build the North South Interconnector and associated wind energy developments, simply means that Northern Ireland is now off limits for investment in replacement conventional generation.

This can actually be seen in Volume 3B Chapter 4 Transmission andTechnology Alternatives Section 4.4.3.1 ‘Potential Alternative: New Conventional Generation in Northern Ireland’:

• 30 One measure to reduce the impact of the transmission capacity restrictions described could be to build further generation in Northern Ireland.

• 31 It is conceivable that a new conventional generation plant constructed in Northern Ireland would improve security of supply issues in the medium term; however, it must be recognised that investment in new generation is at the discretion of independent commercial ventures, and market forces have not produced any proposal for new conventional generation to date.

• 32 Enforcing the construction of a new power station to improve security of supply in Northern Ireland could not be achieved without creating fundamental distortions in the SEM. Such distortions would, in their turn, have a consequential adverse impact on other existing generators, further jeopardising future investment in generation.

 The above statement is disingenuous to say the least. The fact is that building a replacement power station for existing dispatchable capacity, which will no longer be available, is a perfectible viable alternative to the North South Interconnector, which in practice is not being realised, because of decisions already taken at Government level to economically ‘kill it’ as a viable option. If we go back to Section 3.2 and the Maastricht Recommendations, then to re-quote:

• 80. “When all options are open” may be read as a time when any option could still be chosen as the preferred option. Some examples of situations when all options might no longer be considered open could include:
  • When a public announcement of a preferred option has been made even though the plan or programme has not yet been adopted;
  • When a formal decision on the issue has been taken by a public body (including representative bodies like local, regional or national parliaments);
  • When a decision maker has promised to constituents that they will pursue or avoid particular options;
  • When a public authority has concluded contracts or agreements with private parties related to a decision subject to the Convention which would have the effect of foreclosing options prior to meaningful input from the public - (See the findings of the Compliance Committee on communication ACCC/C/2008/24 concerning compliance by Spain (ECE/MP.PP/C.1/2009/8/Add.1), para. 119 (a) (iii).

An examination of the Eirgrid Planning Report Volume 2A Section 4.2.4 ‘The Position of the Governments and Regulatory Authorities’ is thus revealing within the context above.

• In March 2006, the Director of Energy Networks at the Commission for Energy Regulation confirmed in writing to the then Head of Grid Development and Commercial at ESB National Grid (now EirGrid) that:

• The Commission [for Energy Regulation] and the NIAER have considered the option of constructing either a 275 kV or a higher capacity 400 kV line. Both regulators have decided that the additional cost associated with the 400 kV line is justified on the basis of both its higher energy transfer capability and its ability to be upgraded in the long run more practically and economically. Accordingly, the Commission hereby approves a standard of 400 kV for the additional Interconnector line.

• This letter of confirmation from the CER thus set the context for developing a higher capacity additional interconnector between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

What is clear is that public authorities are entering into agreements with associated public funding arrangements, which have the deliberate intent of closing off alternatives and doing so in a manner, which bypasses the whole procedures of public participation related to such large and obtrusive infrastructural projects.

However, to return to the issue of ‘security of supply’, it is clear that the future direction proposed by this Eirgrid project will lead to the situation in the near future, such that Northern Ireland will only have two remaining dispatchable power stations of note, namely those at Coolkeeragh and Ballylumford C. Is this significant? As a grid engineer will explain, power stations were traditionally built close to where the actual power demand was required, not just to reduce the extent of the transmission network and associated losses, but also to assist in maintaining grid stability. In other words you can transmit power (electrons) on long transmission lines, but you can’t maintain the stability at the end of them where the point of use is. Therefore to maintain grid stability, imbalances and disturbances in smaller grids have to be compensated for, both locally and immediately. This is completed by relying on power generation units, which must store enough kinetic energy and reactive power to compensate the power imbalance; in simply terms they have rotating inertia. In more complex terms it can be explained by the below:

• Voltage is a measured physical quantity, which fluctuates as a function of the network state, i.e. grid topology, generation, load, transmission lines and transformers. For network security reasons, i.e. compatibility with the rating of equipment, the supply of customers within the contractual ranges of voltage, plus the power system’s voltage stability regarding disturbances, a voltage control is needed to maintain voltage deviations within predetermined ranges.
• • Voltage levels are maintained by reactive power, assured by different facilities: depending on their operational state, all generators, loads, lines and transformers are either reactive power consumers or producers. Reactive power cannot be transmitted over long distances efficiently, and voltage control is thus a regional problem.
  
  
  • Primary voltage control is implemented by the voltage regulators of generating units. These regulators initiate a variation in the excitation of generators, and reactive power is adjusted using automatic devices with a time response of less than a few seconds. Secondary or tertiary voltage controls are implemented within a time period that can range up to several minutes, using either automatic control devices within a given zone of voltage control, or by the TSO’s manual action to activate reactive compensation equipment.
  • 
    
  A good example is Dublin, for which it is eminently possible to transmit all the power it requires (in terms of electrons) from power stations located in the South and South West of the country, plus supplemented by power transmission from the UK over the new East West Interconnector linking the North of Dublin to Wales. However, this is never done, at least two power stations in the Dublin area must be kept running at all times to maintain grid security – the rotating inertia of their large generator sets is essential to maintain grid stability in the surrounding area.
  
  
  So where does this leave the future position of Northern Ireland; only two remaining power stations of note, of which one could trip or be off-line for maintenance, while the grid is full of highly intermittent wind energy rapidly varying their output, as the wind rises and falls. Doesn’t take a genius to figure that one out, but this is what Eirgrid are actually selling in their planning documentation as ‘Security of Supply’.
  
  
  Note: The term brownout comes from the dimming experienced by lighting when the voltage sags. A voltage reduction may be an effect of disruption of an electrical grid, or may occasionally be imposed in an effort to reduce load and prevent a power outage, known as a blackout. As the Institute of Directors in Northern Ireland put it in their May 2014 press release:
  
  
  • Security of supply
  
  
  • It has been many decades since ‘security of supply’ has been the primary concern in relation to our electricity grid.
  
  
  • The recent focus has been on the cost of electricity and on fuel poverty, masking the serious issues around the current stability of the Grid and the availability of adequate quantities of electricity at peak times of the day.
  
  
  • Even if the priority issues are appropriately addressed now, the lead-in time for the required infrastructure investment means that stability and supply issues will become even more acute in the short term.
  
  
  • Regrettably, timely decisions on improvements to our infrastructure have not been taken to date; as a result the impact will be untimely ‘brown-outs’ (short interruptions in supply) and potentially ‘black-outs’.
  
  
  • By the time the necessary decisions on infrastructure investment are eventually approved, significant costs will have accrued to these projects.
  
  
  • How NI plc tackles this problem is of hugely significant strategic importance yet it is not apparent that any co-ordinated approach is being taken.
  
  
  • The failure in decision making and prioritisation at the Northern Ireland governance level has not only led inevitably to more widespread security of supply issues, but ultimately to higher electricity prices than otherwise would have been necessary.
  
  
  • How is this manifesting itself?
  
  
  • These issues are already impacting on business expansion plans and jobs.
  
  
  • Brown-outs are happening now across the province - from the Ards Peninsula to North Antrim, from Castlewellan to Omagh.
  
  
  • Businesses are having to use generators to provide electricity where Grid supply is not available. (On-site generator supply is at least twice as expensive as Grid electricity, thereby affecting competitiveness).
  
  
  The only conclusion which one can draw from the above, that bad enough as it is now, the North South Interconnector and its associated wind farms are only going to make it worse.
  
  

1 http://www.poyry.co.uk/news/impact-intermittency-how-wind-variability-could-change-shape-british-and-irish-electricity-markets

Government sell Aer Lingus stake to fund energy infrastructure not needed

Irish Government in giant waste of taxpayer's money shocker 

I have a total irreverence for anything connected with society except that which makes the roads safer, the beer stronger, the food cheaper and the old men and old women warmer in the winter and happier in the summer - Brendan Behan, Irish writer

In the Government's recent Capital Investment Plan 2016 - 2021, it is stated that the funding for energy infrastructure such as the North South Interconnector will come from the sale of the State's share in airliner, Aer Lingus :

In May of this year, Government decided to accept the offer for its remaining shareholding of AerLingus. Dáil Éireann approved the sale in July and proceeds from the sale are being used toestablish a new ‘Connectivity Fund’. The Fund is being established as a sub-portfolio of the IrelandStrategic Investment Fund (see above), and it will operate on a commercial basis, providingsupport for commercial investment projects with a connectivity theme, such as the developmentof ports and airports. It will also be open to providing support for projects that involve a widerdefinition of connectivity, including, for example, data connectivity (broadband, fibre optic cables,interconnectors, etc.) and energy connectivity(energy inter-connectors and other energy relatedprojects). These wider connectivity requirements are becoming increasingly important elements ofour core infrastructure. 

They correctly state that we have sufficient generation capacity but due to the Green cancer now widespread in Europe, we need to build more :

 Whilst overall generation capacity is sufficient for the economy into the medium term,the requirement to meet targets in the renewable energy area is driving demand for additional renewable energy capacity, especially wind, tomeet our 40 percent renewable electricity target.

Nearly six billion euros will be ringfenced to fund this infrastructure that is superfluous to Ireland's requirements. This could pay for Irish Water till 2021, with a couple of billion euros to spare to rehouse every single Irish disabled person who lives in run down accommodation seven times (HSE seeks €250m funding for disability homes).  But the Green Cancer Blob must be fed at all costs, even if that means giving up the State's longheld share in Aer Lingus. 

 There will be around €5¾ billion investedduring the course of the Capital Plan in energytransmission and distribution networks, renewable and conventional power generation, and smartmetering by ESB, Ervia (formerly Bord GáisÉireann), Bord na Móna, and EirGrid. The keyprojects to be delivered between now and 2021include: • North-South Transmission Line – to add asecond electricity interconnector betweenIreland and Northern Ireland • Smart Metering – to upgrade energy metersto allow consumers to monitor their energyuse • Grid Link and Grid West – to increase thegrid capacity and secure electricity supply tothe south and east of Ireland and the west ofIreland, respectively. 
 

Smart Meters will change consumer's habits with the end game being to eradicate daily peak electricity demand between 5pm and 8pm. Ireland inequality ? - you ain't seen anything yet. It will be so expensive to use electricity during these times that the poor will simple stop using it.  Instead, they will increasingly turn to take-aways to feed their families, increasing Ireland's already high levels of obesity.   Or, they will simply do without, increasing Ireland's child poverty rankings. It won't be the first nor indeed the last time that kids will be abused by the Irish State.

There have been plenty of protests against the set up of Irish Water but hardly any protest against this far more costly and needless plan. Unfortunately, socialists such as Clare Daly and Ruth Coppinger (who normally rail against inequality) seem to be in support of the Green Cancer , leaving very little political opposition to this.

 

The future of power generation in Northern Ireland - Part 2

The North South Interconnector - what is the payback of the project ?

The North South Interconnector is hailed as the panacea to Northern Ireland's electricity woes.

If we consider Eirgrid’s figures for the interconnector for 2020, they claim a central estimate of €20 million for 2020 and a sensitivity estimate of €13 million. The latter one is actually the justifiable figure. So how much does the North South Interconnector cost? In the presentation to the Oireachtas Committee of 16^th June 2015, it was clarified by Jenny Pyper, who is the Chief Executive of the Utility Regulator in Northern Ireland:

• I should apologise for the absence of a crucial bullet point which provides the total project cost of the North-South interconnector, including overhead line, land acquisition, substation and other costs. The total project cost is €286 million

• It is important to understand that, while the security of supply concerns do not directly apply to us - we probably have more comfort in the Republic in terms of the capacity available for generation - there is an argument that we have an excess that cannot flow to Northern Ireland because the second interconnector is not available at the moment, which is imposing costs on consumers. This extra cost, which we think at minimum is about €10 million per annum, is the primary concern from the Republic's point of view.

Note: None of this includes the cost of the 600 MW of wind energy in Northern Ireland to be facilitated by the North South Interconnector, which as previous is in the order of €2 million per MW installed capacity.

From an engineering perspective what is provided above is simply astounding, a project cost of €286 million and a realist return of €13 million results in a simple payback of some 22 years. In the private sector a project would need a simple payback of some 5 years before it would be considered as viable. As regards the actual payback, then one has to include other costs, such as maintenance, operational costs, depreciation, interest rates on borrowings, etc. So this would push the 22 years out by many more. It is generally recognised that the economic lifespan of high voltage transmission systems is 45 to 50 years, so the payback on this proposed North South Interconnector project would be in the order of half its expected lifespan. In engineering terms this is simply absurd.

For instance, if we consider the UK’s Department of Energy & Climate Change report on “Research to Assess the Barriers and Drivers to Energy Efficiency in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises”, then this clarified with respect to payback period:

• The majority of Interviewed Businesses reported that energy efficiency improvements with a payback period of less than two years made business sense and would be likely to go ahead if finance was available; some extended this to five years.

Why is this so, because it reaches a point where there are simply far better opportunities available to achieve an actual return on the investment, i.e. there is a better bang for the buck elsewhere. After all nobody begrudges that public money is spent on essential infrastructure for health and education, but what is proposed is a project, which wouldn’t see the light of day in the private sector, due to its chronic lack of viable payback. Have Eirgrid looked at alternatives properly ?

As was highlighted in Part 1, Northern Ireland requires new dispatchable generation capacity to replace that which no longer meets EU emissions standards. Could such capacity be installed for the reported €286 million, which is to be spent on the North South Interconnector plus the €2 million per MW to be spent on the associated 600 MW of wind energy? Given that the installed cost of Combined Cycle Gas Turbine technology is less than €0.9 million per MW, then the overwhelming answer is yes it could. So why was this option not investigated in the consideration of alternatives by Eirgrid?