Energy Crisis - Part One Lessons from the Past

    During the 1970s, when the last serious energy crisis occurred, the Irish government and ESB, free from almost any ideological constraints, drew up plans for the single largest construction undertaking in the history of Ireland - Moneypoint coal power station.  It was a huge success and the power station is still managing to keep the lights on during the current energy crisis despite being a target for destruction by the ideologues that swarm Leinster House today. 

Ideologue - various definitions given :

 - an adherent of an ideology, especially one who is uncompromising and dogmatic.

 - an often blindly partisan advocate or adherent of a particular ideology

 - an impractical idealist

 - An ideologue is someone who has very strong beliefs or opinions and stubbornly sticks to them no matter what. An ideologue will insist they're right even when evidence suggests they might be wrong.

The roots of the modern ideological movement began back then in the anti- nuclear movement. It could be argued that man has a natural aversion to nuclear power arising from fear of the unknown. It is of course still a relatively modern technology. But man has no natural aversion to coal. Indeed, the inhabitants of Ireland have been burning coal for thousands of years. In the 1770s, an ancient coal mine was discovered in Antrim. The antique mining tools found there disintegrated as soon as they were touched.  It is only very recently in human history and after years of relentless propaganda that man has decided he wants to turn his back on coal even though it is proving more difficult than he first thought. 

It is not so much misinformation that is causing an unnatural fear of coal, but lack of balance and maturity in the judgement of those at the driving seat of the new ideology. For example, eating your lunch carries with it the risk of choking, but we all accept that risk for the benefits associated with satisfying your hunger. However, if we were to just focus on the negatives and ignore any positives, then the risk of choking is no longer acceptable and therefore eating must be outlawed as an antiquated pastime no longer acceptable in a modern progressive society. Afterall, choking is one of the leading causes of unintentional deaths every year.  

So this is the big difference between the 1970s and the 2020s - for ideological reasons we can't build another Moneypoint power station. Nuclear was ruled out then and is still ruled out now. Let's add coal to the black list.  What can go wrong ?

This leaves us with gas power. But surely it would be foolish to build more gas power stations when high gas prices and the uncertainty of gas supply are the root causes of the current energy crisis ?   For the ideologues who become increasingly divorced from reality, this is not a problem. Gas is good, at least for now (except of course if it's LNG / Liquified Gas that can be shipped in in an emergency situation where the UK can't supply piped gas), coal is bad goes the diktat and the economists and media pundits, one after the other, fall in line. But for the gas generators contracted to build the new power stations, reality is not something they can ignore, and they are pulling out of the Irish market, one after the other. 

Since energy production is a long term enterprise (Moneypoint wasnt up and running until the mid-1980s) and involves engineering expertise, Governments can't magic power plants out of thin air after a crisis emerges. The sensible reaction to the 1970s crisis paved the way for a stable energy sector which enabled the economic growth of the 1990s and 2000s. But did this cheap reliable electricity that we all took for granted back then create a false sense of security? You flick the switch and the lights automatically come on. The switch from one form of power generation with chimneys and stacks and emissions could seamlessly be made to another with turning blades and no emissions. You flick the switch and the lights automatically come on or will they ? 

  

Coal mining in Ancient Ireland

While there is much archaeological evidence about the mining of metal and the use of charcoal in ancient Ireland, there is little or no mention of pit coal in Irish history, that is, coal mined from the earth. However, two different references, from the 1800s, mention a discovery made in 1770 that suggests the ancient Irish were experts at coal mining. The mine was located at Ballycastle in Co.Antrim.

It was found to be an extensive mine, wrought by a set of people at least as expert in the business as the present generation. Some remains of the tools, and even of the baskets used in the works, were discovered, but in such a decayed state, that on being touched, they immediately crumbled to pieces. From the remains that were found, there is reason to believe that the people who wrought these colleries anciently, were acquainted with the use of iron, some small pieces of which were found; it appeared as if some of their instruments had been thinly shod with that metal.

This colliery must have been worked at a very remote period -- at all events, more than one thousand years since, and this argues for the civilization of the inhabitants of Ireland at a period long antecedent to that at which it is generally considered the arts and sciences were first introduced here (From the Irish Fireside, 1883).

Another smaller account is given in the The Industrial Resources of Ireland printed in 1845:

It appears to have been the oldest worked colliery in Ireland, perhaps in the [British] empire, as during the year 1770 the miners broke into an old gallery, the walls of which were lined with stalactites, evidently of great age, and antique mining tools were found therein. The residents of the district had never heard of a tradition of the mine having been anciently worked, and the excavation must have been made at a very remote period indeed. 

 Unfortunately, there was no tradition of archaeology in Ireland at the time, so this invaluable discovery never made it into the archaeological literature (or museums).  While we know the ancient Irish were expert metalworkers, the discovery of the mine in 1770 suggests they were also experts at coal mining. Pit coal would have allowed them to work with much higher temperatures than with charcoal. 

This area of Antrim also had a history of salt production since at least the 16th century :

In 1669 the Hearth Money Rolls state: ‘Neare unto this point are two salt pans where salt is artificially made by the boyling of salt water with pit coale which coal pits are very near to the pans aforesaid and yield great profit to the possessour….’. 

 With six tonnes of fuel needed to produce one ton of salt through the evaporation method, the need for convenient and plentiful energy was paramount.

There was of course no better energy source than coal. It's very possible that coal was used in ancient times in the production of salt.   One has to wonder whether somebody during this period noticed the power of the steam that could be generated from coal and whether any attempt was made to harness this power. Perhaps, they thought of an easier way to move those large rocks.....

Only Ten Percent of Wind Capacity can be Relied Upon Over Winter

Eirgrid, the grid operator, have assessed that only 10% of the entire wind generation fleet in Ireland can be relied upon during the high electricity demand winter period. Solar power fares even worse as zero solar capacity can be relied on as the dark cold evenings draw in.

Conventional gas and coal generators are considered to be around 90% reliable as they can be switched on and off when called upon, once sufficient notice has been given. However, wind is unreliable in nature and is therefore given a "capacity credit" to take account of this unreliability :

 Given the variable nature of wind power, the wind capacity credit expresses how much conventional power generation can be avoided or replaced by a certain level of wind power. 

Only 476MW out of a total of 4,617MW or about 10% can be relied upon in the event that a conventional generator fails :

When it comes to keeping the lights on there is no room for the hyperbole and feel good talk that permeates much of the debate around renewables in the media and in the chambers of the Irish parliament.

The spare generating capacity above electricity demand is called the capacity margin. It has halved from 3,199MW in 2016 to 1,793MW in 2018. Two gas powered generators have closed down in 2018 and Moneypoint coal power station has suffered an outage. 

Generators shut down	Output MW
Aghada AD1 (gas fired steam turbine)	258MW
Marina (open cycle gas turbine)	95MW
Moneypoint (coal)	855MW
	1,208MW

In recent days, it was gas power, the UK interconnector and "other" generators (presumably peat and oil) that ensured the lights stayed on in the absence of Moneypoint and the above units. Renewables (mostly wind energy) varied between 7% and 27% so could not be depended on. Back up power stations are still essential in a grid with large amounts of renewables.

You can also see the importance of the interconnector with the UK (EWIC). Can the UK guarantee they will have spare capacity to export electricity to Ireland ? The black line below shows the profile for coal power in the UK in recent days. As you can see, they too were having problems with their coal units.

Scotland too is in a precarious position and will likely be reliant on imports from the UK over the winter period :

At the time of writing the Torness 2 and Hunterston 3 and 4 reactors were down, leaving Scotland with only 612 MW of nuclear capacity and only 3,900 MW of dispatchable capacity to service over 4,000 MW of demand. However, all three reactors are scheduled to restart by mid-December, and any shortfalls that might occur in the meantime could probably be covered by imports from England [Euan Mearns]

If we get a very cold winter, and there are indications that a cold one is coming, the already strained grid could come under a lot of pressure as demand increases. Couple this with more generator outages, and we could be in for some big problems. This is where the demand side of the equation would become crucial - essentially disconnecting large energy users from the grid who would have to rely on their own generation i.e. diesel generators or combined heat and power. 

Essentially, a return to the pre grid times of the early 1900s, when there was a large and inefficient diesel generator in most big towns in Ireland. 

Fossil Fuel Divestment Bill a Token Gesture and Commerically Reckless

The Irish Government is set to divest over €300 million of it's investments in mostly US fossil fuel companies. This paves the way for more investments in renewables, including the Irish wind sector which as this blog has shown has been making losses in recent years. 

BP data shows that oil, natural gas and coal will still be the dominant energy sources in the future even with rapid growth in renewables. 

BP Data

In transport, oil will comprise over 80% of the energy sources used by 2040. 

The mission statement of the NTMA (National Treasury Management Agency) is to manage public assets and liabilities commercially and prudently.  The fossil fuel divestment bill is at odds with this mission statement as it's purpose is to divest from the most profitable energy markets and from energy sources that will be in high demand for many more years to come. The NTMA do not seem to have carried out a commercial assessment of renewable sources like wind energy. Is it commercially viable or not ? The fact that many Irish wind energy companies are selling up and divesting from the wind energy business altogether might give you a clue. 

The farcical nature of the discussion that took place around the Bill was on full display in the Dail (Irish parliament) with contributions made like this one by Michael D'Arcy of Fine Gael :

I am concerned about something that is happening now, which I see in my own county, whereby people are objecting to everything. It is everywhere. Wind farms are objected to. We brought in new controls to keep turbines back from property boundaries, which is appropriate. There are objections to solar farms. People are creating fear and doubt and saying the craziest things about renewable energies that are clean and tested and have been for decades. It has to stop or we will never meet these targets.  Events like what happened with the Apple data centre in Athenry cannot continue. People who object to a project because it is close to them are wrong in so doing.

It doesn't take too much research to learn that data centres will consume more fossil fuels and make it harder to meet our targets. But here we have somebody in government who believes the opposite. I was waiting for him to say the sun revolves around the earth next.

The fossil fuel divestment bill is a token gesture, will have zero impact on global emissions and will result in losses for the taxpayer.

Oil and Coal Imports Rise Since Irish National Renewable Energy Action Plan

In 2010, Ireland introduced it's National Renewable Energy Action Plan. One might have expected a reduction in fossil fuel imports since that time but in fact both oil and coal imports have risen. Only gas imports have declined. 

	ktoe	ktoe
	Imports 2016	Imports 2010
Crude	3,270	3,113
Gasoline (petrol)	795	1,098
Kerosene	520	530
Jet Kerosene	1,122	1,068
Fueloil	60	316
LPG	136	122
Gasoil DERV	2,684	2,278
Bitumen	230	299
Total Oil	9,009	8,957
Coal bituminous	1,084	921

                     Source: SEAI Energy Data

In the case of oil, most of the increase is due to an increase in motor cars. The increased coal imports are been used in Moneypoint Power Station and are a consequence of the price of coal having dropped since 2010.

What this proves is the madness of Ireland's wind only policy which can only displace gas, the least emitting fossil fuel. If we really are in trouble with the climate, then converting Moneypoint to either gas or nuclear is the only solution in town.  Which of course nobody really wants to look at and that tells you something.

Natural Gas Imports

As for gas imports, these have declined. Some of that is due to the 3,000MW of wind energy. Other equally important factors are the Shell gas reserve off the sea at County Mayo which came into production in 2016 (which in fact accounts for about 80% of the reduction), the new interconnector to the UK which up to recently was providing a net import into Ireland and an increase in peat and coal production. Gas imports have in total declined by 60% or 11% if Shell gas reserve is excluded.

Although there was a reduction in gas used in the residential sector, there was an increase in gas used in the industrial sector. In particular, the metals industry and behind that the foods industry.

Government inconsistent on city pollution and coal

State wide ban on smoky coal

Today, the Department of the Environment will introduce a State wide ban on "smoky" coal. While attempts to curb pollution, particularly in cities, are admirable, the Government are guilty of inconsistency in this matter. For many years, diesel has been encouraged through lower taxation with the result that diesel cars and fuel are cheaper to buy than petrol alternatives. This has resulted in increases of local emissions in built up and city areas. As economist Colm McCarthy explains :

Diesel engines give better mileage than petrol, hence causing lower emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere per kilometre travelled. But they produce higher emissions of local pollutants, including particulates and nitrogen oxide, and these are known to have adverse effects on human health, especially in built-up areas.

 Attempts to control this pollution have failed and in the wake of the Volkswagon emission scandal, its safe to say has failed miserably.

 But it is beginning to look as if a mistake has been made in Europe. Encouraging diesel to cut emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is a worthy objective. But the control of low-level emissions from diesel through regulation seems to have failed. The European Commission is proposing a tougher testing regime, the standard bureaucratic response: if a policy fails, it needs to be intensified - always reinforce failure [sound familiar - admin note].

 So if the Government is concerned about city pollution, perhaps it can take a look at it's own failed policy in relation to motor vehicles (I have previously written about the benefits of using CNG for public transport).

And if it's concerned about coal pollution, then maybe it can take a look at Moneypoint power station and the options open to converting it to less polluting alternatives. People have a choice not to buy smoky coal, but the people of Clare and Kerry do not have a choice (except moving out of the area).

Could it be that it better suits it's owners bottom line to use cheap coal ? Then by the same logic, shouldn't ordinary people have the same right to avail of cheaper methods of heating their home ?