Energy Regulator - Existing Generating Fleet has become less Reliable

The energy regulator, in a recent Oireachtas Committee meeting, explains that what this blog has consistently warned for many years would happen has now come to fruition - that power stations have become less reliable as a result of excessive ramping up and down to back up wind :

Coming into the past winter, winter 2020-21, we had our seasonal update with EirGrid. We have a winter outlook and a summer outlook. That involves EirGrid, ourselves and the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications. In this we identify short-term challenges. These included an uptick and increase in demand from a range of sectors, which would have included data centres and the economy recovering or starting to recover post Covid. Separately, we noticed a reduction in the reliability of the existing fleet. Some of those pieces of the fleet that are of medium to older age are being asked to turn up and turn down more frequently as they balance the wind. They are being asked to do things they were not designed for, so the reliability of some of the existing fleet has decreased a little.

https://www.kildarestreet.com/committees/?id=2021-07-06a.349&s=whitegate#g368

This was something that was not factored in to any of the assessments of wind energy. But reality doesn't change by ignoring it. 

Appeal Panel Rule in Favor of Huntstown Power Station

An Appeal Panel appointed by the Department of Communications has determined that the Energy Regulator (CRU) erred in making changes to the licence of Huntstown gas powered station following the power station's failure to secure capacity payments in the recent capacity auction. The Regulator's decision would have forced the power station to give three years notice of closure, which meant the plant would have had to run at a loss for those years. 

"The CRU has effectively turned up the heat and locked the door of the kitchen.” - Appeal Panel decision

 The Appeal Panel was made up of three barristers - Eilis Brennan BL, Joe Jeffers BL and Aoife Carroll BL. They ruled that the Regulator had made a “serious and significant error (by omission)” by not reaching a negotiated settlement to help manage the power station's exit from the market through a Targeted Contracting Mechanism (TCM). In a further blow to the already delayed I-SEM, the Regulator had failed to include a TCM in it's setup.

It's uncertain as to the consequences of this ruling and whether it will actually be implemented at all. However, it does highlight the urgent need for some independent oversight in Ireland.

I wrote previously about the capacity auction here.

The Energy Bubble is Clearly Unsustainable

by Owen Martin

The Energy Regulator has reported that there is currently a backlog of 36,000MW of renewable and conventional generation connection applications (See above graph). This would increase the current capacity of 10,500MW to a staggering 46,500MW if all of these applications were accepted. As the regulator points out we only have an electricity demand for about 7,000MW. 

Under normal circumstances, only capacity that replaced existing capacity or was required to meet additional demand or reserve requirements would be accepted. Now, because of the rush to meet EU targets, thousands of megawatts of inefficient and intermittent renewable generation are being added. Renewable generation, mostly wind and solar, make up about 70% of the planned generation figure. 

This will lead to a low capacity factor across the board, with all generators operating inefficiently and intermittently. As this blog reported recently, many wind farm companies are making losses. As more generation is added, the market share for all generators will be eroded and we will see more loss making generators. Which will require yet more government intervention to keep the lights on (and possibly another NAMA to be set up).

And it gets worse. The Grid will require a large upgrade as most of these solar and wind farms will be in remote and dispersed regions far away from centres of demand. The costs will simply keep rising exponentially. 

In particular, the CRU notes that the existing backlog of connection applications amounting to 36,000MW is already significantly in excess of the all-island total electricity requirement. Keeping the non-GPA process open to further applications during the consultation period would only increase this volume. This would potentially add to consumer costs with no discernible benefit. 

 For example, with this much renewable generation, it will become increasingly difficult to stabilize and manage the grid frequency. That is why more conventional generation is required to maintain stability and of course this adds to the costs. The Regulator refers to these generators as DS3 providers and has proposed giving them priority over renewable generation :

DS3 system services are required by the system in order to accommodate increasing volumes of non-synchronous renewable generation. The CRU decided in CER/16/284 that providers of those services will be prioritised for a connection offer under the non-GPA process, and requested the system operators to develop a process for this prioritisation. 

The regulator also plans on suspending some of the renewable generation which would of course be a wise decision and be in the interests of all consumers.  Naturally, the renewable lobby groups are not happy and have somehow managed to spin this as a decision that will "result in higher electricity prices." It's difficult to understand why they are lobbying for more supply in an already over-saturated market which will erode the market share of existing renewable generators. 

The energy regulator should stick to the facts and figures as presented in her document. That way she can defend her actions later. It could be the first time an energy regulator has stood up to the green lobby and protected consumer's rights. The Energy Bubble is clearly unsustainable. I for one am hoping that for the first time in recent Irish history, an Irish regulator does the right thing before it's too late.

Power Stations to Close

New Single Electricity Market rules now in force will see capacity payments cut by 30%.  In some cases, the power stations may not receive any capacity payment at all.

The inevitable consequence of this is the closure of older power stations and less dispatchable plant available to keep the lights on. Dispatchable plant is plant that can be switched on quickly when required. Renewables like Wind energy are not dispatchable because their output is uncontrollable. Ireland (All Island) currently has about 10,000MW of dispatchable plant and about 4,000MW of wind energy. About 1,000MW of capacity will not qualify for capacity payments. This leaves around 9,000MW of dispatchable plant remaining.

	Dispatchable plant MW
Remaining dispatchable	9,046
Max demand (2010)	6,878
Capacity margin	2,168
Minimum new data centres	1,136
Capacity margin after data centres	1,032
Reserve Generation	500
Capacity Margin Net Surplus	532

When everything is accounted for, including periods of high demand such as occurred in winter 2010 and planned data centres, there is a capacity margin of 1,032MW. Reserve generation is required incase a power station trips out. Currently this is about 500MW. This leaves a net capacity margin of 532MW.

This is quite tight but what happens if Viridian shut down not one but both of their gas power stations in Dublin (they have notified the Regulator that they will close both).  

This would leave a capacity margin of just 132MW. It would be lunacy to allow this to happen as blackouts would be inevitable in a harsh winter.  Dublin would be at most risk where there is a requirement for two large power stations to be on load at all times (three if the UK interconnector is out). 

While it would reduce costs, a blackout would come at a greater cost. 

And what of Northern Ireland ?  Where is the surplus power to come from to export to the North through the North South Interconnector ? The new auction will result in the closure of power stations in the North (Kilroot and part of Ballylumford). Northern Ireland is already at risk of power shortages.

But don't worry the Energy Regulator knows what they are doing I hear you thinking ? Well, I will just leave this here :

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/today-with-sean-o-rourke/podcasts/ 

Look for Tuesday 30th January "Electricity Supply".

The interviewer asks the Regulator how much power do the Viridian power stations supply in percentage terms ? It's worrying that the Regulator had not checked this very important statistic. She replies that they are 800MW capacity so out of 9,000MW, it would be a bit less than 10%. But the 9,000MW is not demand, it's total capacity (capacity must be higher than demand). She also never mentioned the little problem of a minimum requirement for power stations in Dublin. Again, something I thought she should know. 



1) SEMO Auction Results - http://www.sem-o.com/ISEM/General/Capacity%20Market%20-%20Final%20Capacity%20Auction%20Results%20Report.pdf

2) Eirgrid Constraints in Dublin Region -  http://www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/Operational-Constraints-Update-January-2018.pdf

3) Planned Data Centres - http://www.iwea.com/industryreports

4) Maximum demand all time - http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/#all/demand

Electricity Retailers Increase Prices

Most electricity retailers are increasing their prices this month and the blame is been put on wholesale prices. However, gas prices are no higher than 2005 levels. 

Figure 1: Gas prices since 2000

I have been keeping track of my own electricity bills since 2012. I wanted to see if the reduction in wholesale prices and gas prices have been passed on to the consumer. The result can be seen in Figure 2.

Figure 2 shows little correlation between gas prices and unit price of electricity

The result is clear. The large fall in gas prices has not been matched by a similar fall in the unit price of electricity.   There has been a reduction in gas prices of about 50%. The reduction in the unit price of electricity has been about 7%. If we compare the energy payments or the annual market value of the electricity wholesale market with the gas prices we do see a better correlation (Figure 3).

Figure 3 shows good correlation between Annual Energy Payments (in orange) and Gas Prices(in red)

This means that when the gas prices are low, generators receive lower prices from the market. But these savings in wholesale prices are not passed on to the consumer in any meaningful way.

The hidden force in these graphs is wind energy. It has increased every year since 2012 now making up about 23% of the electricity mix. While we are constantly told that wind energy reduces the wholesale price of electricity, there is no evidence in the actual data.   With this increase in wind energy, there has been a parallel increase in system costs - grid and transmission infrastructure, back up costs, new interconnectors, and high wind penetration feasibility programmes (known as DS3). 

All these costs make up the unit price of electricity. After that, the PSO Levy gets added on, another component that only ever increases (an increase has also been announced this month).

The Energy Regulator seems to be toothless in the face of an electricity sector with out of control costs, government interference and regulation. His name is now redundant, and increasingly appears more like something out of Orwell's novel 1984 where Government Departments like the Ministry for Truth do the opposite of their name.       

ESB call on energy regulator to cap subsidies to wind

Electric Ireland, the supply part of ESB Group, the largest electricity generation company in Ireland, has called on the Energy Regulator (CER) to cap and even reduce subsidies to wind energy. The letter was sent to the CER during consultations on the PSO Levy in July this year. 

Electric Ireland welcomes the proposed reduction in the overall PSO levy for 2015/16 period of c. 9% compared to the current period and notes the positive impact this will have on all electricity customers. However the proposed PSO levy of €304.8m will continue to be a significant burden for all electricity customers and adds considerably to the overall price of electricity. 

Electric Ireland also notes that over 50% of the proposed PSO levy (€173.9m) relates to Renewables and suggests that every effort be made in future years to cap, and ideally reduce, this amount. The wind market in Ireland is at this point a mature and well established market and we believe it does not warrant any further subsidy beyond current commitments. The hardpressed energy customer cannot sustain further subsidisation through the PSO and we would urge policy makers to ensure no additional subsidies are created beyond existing PSO commitments.  

It is difficult to see how the Government can justify increases to subsidies to wind generators, although Energy Minister Alex White seems committed to fulfilling every wish of the wind industry.

Energy Regulator confirms that wind energy will result in additional costs

This blog has consistently made the point that wind has and will result in more costs in the generation of electricity, because when you mix large amounts of non-dispatch with dispatch generation, the dispatch no longer runs as smoothly as before, meaning that the costs of running your dispatch goes up.

The Energy Regulator confirmed this in an Oireachtas Committee a couple of weeks ago :

Wind has been least-cost in the past, but that does not necessarily mean it will be least-cost in the future. More and more wind on the system adds extra costs. It is a question of the law of diminishing returns. To bring in more and more wind, we have extra network costs. We need more flexibility from the generators. The wind does not always blow. When the wind is not blowing, we need to have extra capacity there to keep the lights on. The cost of that increases with the levels of wind. Some of the microgeneration technologies, such as solar technology, start to become more competitive in such circumstances. They also have falling capital costs. We constantly need to look at this in a cost framework. While we have security of supply requirements and we need to consider the environment, cost is a major feature of our overall duty.

https://www.kildarestreet.com/committees/?id=2015-02-18a.1291&s=wind+farm#g1411 

It is good to see the Regulator now focusing on cost, because it certainly is going to become an issue into the future.