Wind energy could contribute an additional €5 billion per year to gross domestic product (GDP) in the next decade if Ireland exports renewable power, according to a new report.
The report by global engineering firm Pöyry Management Consulting was compiled for the Irish Wind Energy Association (IWEA), the national association for the wind industry. The findings were presented at an IWEA conference in Dublin yesterday - Irish Times, March 2014.
The idea seems simple on the face of it - build lots of windfarms in the Irish midlands and export the wind energy to Britain at a large profit. What could go wrong ? Well, for those who don't do their analysis, a lot could go wrong. The main problem is that wind exports are not as valuable a commodity as is often made out (oddly enough by the wind industry).
Let's look at Denmark. As you can see, in 2010, exports were worth € 215 million while in 2015 they were worth just € 31 million. Exports (in GWh) reduced each year, reflecting the fact that wind penetration increased at the same time - hence there was less surplus wind to export. But the wholesale price for exports dropped by two thirds in the same period. This reflects lower wholesale prices around Europe as gas and oil prices fell aswell as the huge surpluses created by the current over capacity. As a result, more and more subsidies have now become required to keep power stations open and renewable generators viable.
Let's look at Denmark. As you can see, in 2010, exports were worth € 215 million while in 2015 they were worth just € 31 million. Exports (in GWh) reduced each year, reflecting the fact that wind penetration increased at the same time - hence there was less surplus wind to export. But the wholesale price for exports dropped by two thirds in the same period. This reflects lower wholesale prices around Europe as gas and oil prices fell aswell as the huge surpluses created by the current over capacity. As a result, more and more subsidies have now become required to keep power stations open and renewable generators viable.
Net export
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
GWh
|
4,229
|
3,224
|
1,620
|
2,967
|
2,661
|
1,908
|
millions_€
|
215.766
|
155.297
|
50.097
|
88.965
|
61.969
|
31.679
|
€/MWh
|
51.02
|
48.17
|
30.93
|
29.99
|
23.29
|
16.60
|
Denmark: total export for all hours with net export. Other hours had a net import (PF Bach).
€ 31 million is only about 0.015% of the wholesale electricity market in Ireland. An amount that is hardly worth building a new industry around here in Ireland and certainly very far from the € 5 billion alluded to above.
A so called Irish engineer living and working in Denmark came to an energy event in Dublin Castle in 2014. Marc Connolly outlined all the marvels of Denmark's energy revolution including its wind farms and heating schemes. I challenged him, I tacked him at the Coffey break, He could not justify his comments and ran off. My you tube video valmartinireland No 5 specifically deals with Denmark and shows that all the green hype is fraudulent.
ReplyDeleteThe Danes are now reduced to shutting down 400 megawatts of wind production to drive prices up. So that they can recover their costs. The Danish Wind Mill Owners Association are now admitting that as capacity is still being that each wind turbine added is cannibalizing the income of all the others .Forcing them all towards Bankrupty. The brave new world of renewable energy. Denmark is an economic basket case in the making because of renewables . Is the government asking us to travel the same road? .Yes it is all you have to do is read the energy white paper
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