Chart 1 - The green line includes all potentially available capacity whether currently in use or not. Some adjustments have been made to the red line to take account of the temporary loss of two gas and one oil generators .
The above graph shows how Ireland's electricity supply position has evolved since the height of the building boom in 2006. The green line shows the total generation capacity that consumers must pay for including wind energy. As you can see the gap between the green line and peak demand in blue has increased exponentially in tandem with the building of new wind farms in yellow and new power stations in red. This gap is a large part of the reason why electricity bills have soared in recent years as the capital element of all of this capacity must be financed through bills regardless of how much energy they produce. So with all of this excess capacity, how is it that we are facing the prospect of blackouts?
The red line is dispatchable plant, that is, plant that can be switched on at a moment's notice as required. The main ones in Ireland are gas, coal and oil power stations. The interconnector to England (EWIC) is also included in this however it's debatable how dispatchable this is in light of recent events (more on this later). Peat is also dispatchable but two of those power stations were closed down in 2020 leaving only one remaining peat station in Edenderry which also runs on biomass. It is due to be closed down in 2023. It has now finally being accepted by almost everyone (apart from the Green Party Energy Minister ?) that wind is not dispatchable and during long periods of low wind as we have had this year it is really the red line that we are relying on to keep the lights on.
The red line takes a noticeable dip after 2020. This is to take account of the loss of three power stations during 2021 - Huntstown 400MW, Whitegate 444MW and Tarbert 243MW. This has returned us to 2007 levels of dispatchable plant. This shouldn't present a serious problem, we managed okay back then. However, there are two main differences between now and back in the Tiger days :
1) Peak demand has increased by about 10%. The peak of 5,357MW was reached in December 2020. It is likely that this will increase further this winter which means the gap between the red and the blue line in Chart 1 will narrow even further.
2) The rate of forced outages has increased dramatically in recent years. According to Eirgrid, the forced outage rate went from a low of about 3% in 2016 to a high of about 16% in 2021. The forced outage rate is the rate at which power stations are breaking down. Power stations are becoming less reliable and not just old ones. One reason for this is that they are switching on and off too much to balance the wind (more here) .
The situation then is precarious enough but what happens if the UK does not have spare energy to give to us over the interconnector ? This has become a greater risk as energy shortages have recently become a major political issue in the UK. Chart 2 shows what happens when the EWIC is no longer available :
Chart 2
There is now a very small gap between the red and blue lines. 353MW to be exact. Which is about the size of a single power station. So another power station outage would leave us on the precipice and if the winter is a cold one demand will surely rise pushing us over the edge into blackout territory.
To sum up here, it would take six events occurring at the same time to leave us in a very dangerous position - three of those are the three currently unavailable power stations not being repaired in time for winter, the fourth is the interconnector becoming useless, the fifth is either another power station breaking down or demand rising higher than last year. The trend for the fourth and fifth events is going the wrong way in all cases. The likelihood however of all 3 power stations not being repaired in time for winter is fairly slim although I have a feeling Whitegate may not be repaired by mid November as scheduled.
The sixth event is perhaps the biggest variable of all, the yellow line in the charts - wind energy. If there is plenty of it then in theory the majority of these events occurring simultaneously would not pose such a major problem. But if we have another lull as we have had this summer then that is a different story.
I say, in theory, because it is slightly more complicated than that. Certain power stations are required to be operating at all times to maintain the stability of the grid. Currently that includes Moneypoint coal power station. Moneypoint happens to be the oldest power station on the grid so there is a risk to the entire grid if it alone suffers an outage. No amount of wind energy can replace the inertia that Moneypoint provides to the system.
In any event, the demand of large energy users will most likely be cut before we get near the precarious position of all or most of these events occurring together.
Demand management they are calling it. Which is another form of blackout, just with a nicer name .
We need to calculate the useable capacity of wind generation to give an accurate calculation of usefulness total installed wind capacity.That is wind generations ability to supply the Internal Irish Market Excluding EWIC dumping the average annual internal usable capacity of wind generation is circa 15%. Of the installed capacity . For long periods during the summer months the useable capacity of wind generation installed capacity is very close ZERO%. The usable capacity of synchronous production should also be calculate for comparison to that of wind capacity. The figures quoted by the wind industry on the likely output of a wind turbine are wild exaggerations. They ignore output losses due wind turbine and wind farm density, wind wake, wind shear, wind turbulences caused by hills, mountains, and forests close by. In extreme situations total output losses will be up to 100%. The usable capacity percentage for wind generation will drop as capacity increases.There is plenty of research on but the wind industry just ignore it. It might embarrass them. All government projections on wind output are just wild exaggerations . The reality is about 15%of installed capacity currently and dropping as they add more capacity.Due to increased ind farm density etc.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the current shortages in gas supplies in Europe, Russia has very low inventories and potentially may cut back on supply to Europe. Given that we are hugely dependent on gas imports, would this also be a significant risk factor?
ReplyDeleteYes it would be a risk factor. However, my understanding is that a gas turbine can also run on DO, basically diesel and that our power stations have back up supplies of oil.
DeleteIt is not only the author of this blog who is concerned. The Irish Academy of Engineering is concerned that, faced with the most challenging energy transition in history, the slow pace at which policy change is being implemented, the lack of a coherent financial and economic analysis and the failure to efficiently manage reliability risk.
ReplyDeleteThe estimated cost of the Irish energy transition range according to MaREI will be €60Bn. The IMF view this as drastically underestimated (sucked out of thin air) and that €200Bn is closer to the mark.
In this context the recent AQcademy report poses the following important questions:
1. When will policymakers publish a comprehensive and coherent financial and economic analysisof the proposed changes up to 2030 which will quantify the likely electricity price increases1 and tax arrangements necessary to fund the required investment and retain current reliability standards?
2. At a time of great change, why does it take two and a half years to complete a Review of Ireland’s Energy Security? (Commenced in Nov 2019, now scheduled for completion in Spring 2022)
3. What arrangements are proposed to ensure the long-term availability of natural gas for Ireland given that Irish natural gas reserves will be entirely depleted by 2030 and the UK will, by then, import 75% of its natural gas while Ireland will have to continue to rely on gas fired generation as a backup for intermittent renewable power for the foreseeable future?
4. Why did the current process for ensuring the timely addition of generation capacity to the Irish power system recently fail resulting in the proposed leasing for six months of 200MW of “Emergency Generation”? (The first time Ireland has had to resort to this option). The Academy notes with concern the subsequent sudden cancellation of this generation within a matter of weeks of the original announcement.
5. What measures do policy makers propose in order to advance long delayed critical transmission projects such as the North-South interconnector and the Laois 400kV substation?
6. Why are regulatory bodies only now confronting the clearly foreseeable supply issues posed by the concentration of data centres in the Dublin area?
http://iae.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/IAE_Sustainable_Electricity_in_2030-1.pdf
The lives of we, the public, will be hugely affected by what is done, when it is done, and how it is paid for. As such, the Academy report is a wake-up call to Joe Citizen. Pay attention, because you will pay for whatever is implemented!
Wrap your brain around this. It is impossible to generate 80% of our electricity from renewables. Go and get some data look at how little wind generation actually is produced in the summer months. Virtually Nothing.Your economists and finance people are not competent in the area of actually designing a renewable energy generation system that can actually work.Why are these type of people spoofing off about the great energy transition. There is not going to be a great energy transition to every thing hunky dory operating on 80% renewables it is impossible.If we keep up this joke renewables program the only transition that will occur is a transition back to the stoneage. The idea that sleepy Ryan actually knows what be is talking about is comedic . You can build the most complex transmission system you can but if the wind don't blow you will be producing nothing. Wise up and stop doping around that wind can produce 80% of our electricity requirements. It cannot be done it is impossible.
ReplyDeleteYou complain about unidentified 'economists'. The risks to reliability and resilience of high wind reliance have been noted by economists for decades. The Academy of Engineering have been on the money as you point out, and I agree, but you have been reading the wrong economists.
ReplyDeleteHuntstown is back but Whitegate is still offline as far as I know. It was due back on the 4th November, then the 15th. Looks like there are some serious technical problems to be overcome when fixing a turbine blade.
ReplyDeleteThe geology of the Atlantic Coast means off shore wind farmss are unsuitable. That's why no windfarms on the windiest coast line of Europe, same for England and Scotland, nothing in Cornwall or the Hebrides...
ReplyDeleteSo that is why they are going for floating models?
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