Inflation : Irish Energy Blog proven correct, Major Economists Wrong

Last October, I wrote an article predicting that inflation would not be temporary :

Irish Energy Blog: Why Inflation will not be Temporary

Almost every other major economist at the time was predicting that inflation would be temporary or "transitory" :

"The European Central Bank still sees a recent rise in euro zone inflation to above its 2% target as temporary and expects price pressures to ease next year, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday"  [Oct 21].

"Inflation "is expected to dissipate over time, as supply disruption eases, global demand rebalances, and energy prices stop rising," with a peak likely in April next year, the BoE said in an announcement in which it vowed to train its eye on "medium-term prospects for inflation" and ignore "factors that are likely to be transient."    [Nov 21]

Jan 22 :

"The word "transitory" seems to be gone from the lexicon but European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane is sticking to his guns, insisting the current burst of inflation is merely a temporary Covid phenomenon that will peel away later this year".

It appears that the people who's job it is to understand inflation do not understand it. In very simple terms, this is how it works :

Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. 

It does not matter the cause of supply shortages. 

You must not increase the money supply during supply or production shortages.  

If a country has four production facilities and three close down, then printing money will cause a surge in inflation because the money supply has increased when production supply has decreased in this case by 75%. The monetary policy was the opposite of what needed to happen. 

It does not matter the reason for the three plant closures - bad weather, pandemic, war, fuel shortage, aliens etc - the effect is the same, viz, a reduction in production. 

Yet, this is exactly what economies all across the world did during the Covid lockdowns - they printed massive quantities of money during a period of very low output (and low interest rates). While the lockdowns were destructive in themselves, printing money simultaneously was like throwing petrol on the fire and for that reason I don't see an end to the inflation crisis for quite a few years.