Nuclear Energy - A Way Forward For Ireland ?

The following blog post was written by a power generation engineer with extensive Europe-wide experience in all types of generation.

Steam rises from a Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor in Cattenom, France

2015 was the year the Irish Central Bank commemorated Prof. Ernest Walton’s (Ireland’s only Nobel Laureate in the science arena) contribution to Nuclear Physics by splitting the atom in the 1930s. Nuclear medicine is now an essential part of our everyday life from simple x-rays to advanced CT and PET scans. Yet in 2015 the words ‘nuclear power’ are still surrounded by fear and hysteria in Ireland.


Irish Political Hypocrisy and Nuclear Power

Irish politicians run a mile from the topic, shouting for the closure of Sellafield, yet happy to import nuclear power via interconnectors and planning another one to import more from France. Eamon Ryan (RTE’s favourite energy analyst) says he wants to debate the topic yet refused uranium exploration licenses back in 2007 as it could be used for future nuclear power electricity generation. For someone so concerned with Climate Change, Ryan must be well aware that in the International Energy Agency’s 2 Degree Scenario (2DS), requires the global installed capacity of nuclear power to more than double from current levels of 396 gigawatts (GW) to reach 930 GW in 2050.

Nuclear Power is Unconstitutional

One of the myths often trotted out is that nuclear power is prohibited in Ireland under the constitution and would need a referendum to change it. In fact it’s so much easier. Only the recent Planning and Development (Strategic Infrastructure) Act 2006 and the Electricity Regulation Act 1999, both of which can be changed by a simple vote in the Oireachtas, prohibit it. Does anyone recall the debate or public vote to ban nuclear in 1999 or 2006?

 
We don’t have the skills in Ireland

Ireland is a leader in the high tech pharmaceutical and semiconductor industry. Irish companies are now exporting their professional services in these areas across the globe. ESBI have been designing and building power plants overseas for decades. Irish engineers have worked at senior levels in the nuclear industry from operations to decommissioning and are highly regarded and sought after.  You can be sure that many more will succeed in building the next generation of reactors in Britain.
 
It costs too much

Yes nuclear power has high upfront costs but it has an inexpensive and stable fuel supply.  Study after study shows it’s the most economic form of electricity generation (even compared to the one fueled by ‘free wind’).  Ever wonder why France has such low electricity costs compared to Ireland and Denmark?

How nuclear energy could work in Ireland 

Nuclear provides baseload, dispatchable power which means it provides energy at the flick of a switch. The Irish renewable industry have not come up with a reliable means of providing baseload generation. Most of them seem to be not in favor of biomass, which could potentially work as a source of baseload power. This leaves only one low carbon alternative - nuclear. One can see in France the effect the transition to nuclear has had on carbon emissions :

Graph taken from Euan Mearns Energy Matters website

France mainly uses Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) which have a capacity of about 900MW. Moneypoint coal power station in Co.Clare has an almost identical generation capacity. Therefore, this type of nuclear reactor would be perfect as a low carbon replacement for Moneypoint. Given that Moneypoint runs in the Irish grid twenty four hours, 365 days a year, this would significantly reduce Ireland's emissions without the need to build extra grids. One would have to install 7,500MW of wind and associated transmission lines to achieve anywhere near the same fuel and emissions savings (based on a capacity credit of 12%)¹.


The future

The rest of the world has moved forward and the construction of new nuclear power plants is at its highest level in 25 years. The renewables project in Ireland has not succeeded. It is only a matter of time before politicians begin to prepare for a massive U-turn.


¹In theory yes, but in practice, given the system constraints, it would still be unlikely to achieve the same savings with any amount of wind.

Government inconsistent on city pollution and coal

State wide ban on smoky coal

Today, the Department of the Environment will introduce a State wide ban on "smoky" coal. While attempts to curb pollution, particularly in cities, are admirable, the Government are guilty of inconsistency in this matter. For many years, diesel has been encouraged through lower taxation with the result that diesel cars and fuel are cheaper to buy than petrol alternatives. This has resulted in increases of local emissions in built up and city areas. As economist Colm McCarthy explains :

Diesel engines give better mileage than petrol, hence causing lower emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere per kilometre travelled. But they produce higher emissions of local pollutants, including particulates and nitrogen oxide, and these are known to have adverse effects on human health, especially in built-up areas.

 Attempts to control this pollution have failed and in the wake of the Volkswagon emission scandal, its safe to say has failed miserably.

 But it is beginning to look as if a mistake has been made in Europe. Encouraging diesel to cut emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is a worthy objective. But the control of low-level emissions from diesel through regulation seems to have failed. The European Commission is proposing a tougher testing regime, the standard bureaucratic response: if a policy fails, it needs to be intensified - always reinforce failure [sound familiar - admin note].

 So if the Government is concerned about city pollution, perhaps it can take a look at it's own failed policy in relation to motor vehicles (I have previously written about the benefits of using CNG for public transport).

And if it's concerned about coal pollution, then maybe it can take a look at Moneypoint power station and the options open to converting it to less polluting alternatives. People have a choice not to buy smoky coal, but the people of Clare and Kerry do not have a choice (except moving out of the area).

Could it be that it better suits it's owners bottom line to use cheap coal ? Then by the same logic, shouldn't ordinary people have the same right to avail of cheaper methods of heating their home ?

Significant amounts of Generation in the pipeline

Eirgrid have announced that they are upgrading their transmission network to facilitate future increases in power generation.  Total planned generation will be 15,000MW by 2023 - three times that of peak winter demand. In otherwords, this is generation that is simply not required.

There is no mention of the cost or environmental impact of all this infrastructure. There is mention that in a period of volatile energy costs renewable energy sources can also contribute to cost competitiveness by reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels but as Irish Energy Blog has shown fossil fuel prices can come down in real life with investment in subsidized renewables preventing these savings from been passed on to the consumer :

Gas Prices Hit Six Year Low but still Electricity Bills rise

There is also the question of whether An Bord Pleanala (or the local planning authority) should carry out a cumulative assessment of this entire project, which includes new transmission and new generation, as it certainly looks like there will be significant environmental impacts.

Windless nights and cold seas

Windless Nights

Tonight, wind energy in Ireland is at 21MW, a capacity factor of 0.8% :

England is not doing much better with 420MW, a capacity factor of 3% :

But surely, if we had an interconnector to France we could import wind from there ?

Well the problem is there is not much wind blowing there either. Interestingly, they have more wind energy than Ireland has with 1,854MW and a capacity factor of 18.5%. So much for the idea that Ireland has the best wind speeds in Europe :

But this is only 3% of electricity demand in France which means they don't have any surplus wind energy to export to anybody. 

Nuclear power is providing 75% of their electricity demand so if we had an interconnector to France we would be importing mostly nuclear power (we currently import nuclear power from the UK). But oddly enough, there is still a superstitious fear of nuclear power in Ireland, although we are happy to import it from other countries.

Total wind capacity for the three countries is 25GW, at let's say, an average cost of €1 million per MW. This means that € 25 billion worth of energy infrastructure is producing just 9% of its rated output, contributing a grand total of 2% of total electricity demand (at 104GW) for these nations. This is what happens when Governments run loose with their people's money and bypass the legal assessments that could have prevented this waste of money. 

The EU's single currency has failed, their Schengen Agreement has failed, and their plans for an energy union based on intermittent renewables is failing. It is time for a re-think.

 

Cold Seas

There is currently a very cold body of water in the Atlantic around Ireland :

 

If we compare this to 2010, one of the coldest winters in recent history, the seas were much warmer back then at this time of the year :

It seems a good possibility that we are in store for a very cold winter with low winds. 

Things could get interesting.

Gas Prices Hit Six Year Low but still Electricity Bills rise

The above diagram gives a good indication of where gas prices in the EU are at. It reveals that gas prices have hit a six year low i.e gas prices have not been this low since 2009. Gas power is usually the last generator called on by the National Grid in Ireland so this is the one that sets the wholesale price of electricity for all generators (under the merit order system).

If we look at a recent wholesale price (SMP) profile we can see that it is well below € 50 / MWh, at about € 30 / MWh :

Indeed, we can see that back in February this year it was up around the € 50 / MWh mark :

But still electricity bills are not getting cheaper. This amounts to an abuse of the free market, a market all consumers should be entitled to participate fairly in. The excuse of rising prices for fossil fuels is often used as a justification to hike bills but the opposite doesn't happen here in Ireland, the land where the electricity consumer can be milked till the cows come home.

The guy supposed to be regulating this can be contacted at info@cer.ie

Ex Green Minister gets more airtime

You could be forgiven for thinking that the leader of the Green Party, Eamon Ryan, was still a member of Government, or even an elected representative, but he is neither.

Tonight, once again, on the national television broadcaster, RTE, he will be given airtime to speak about green policy that nobody has voted for since 2007.

Has there ever been an ex-public representative that gets so much media time ?

Could it be that he is the last politician around that will defend the in-defensible ?

Energy Minister shows he is out of his depth

He said Denmark, which generates 140 per cent of its energy needs through wind energy, had 5,000 turbines, compared with the Republic’s 1,450, despite having half the land mass - Minister For Energy, Alex White, September 2015.

Denmark generated 140% during one night. The following morning they were barely getting any of their energy needs from wind, with Denmark reliant on imports from Norway and Sweden :

Source: PF Bach http://pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/pfb_operations_2015_07_09_en.pdf

The implication given by the Energy Minister was that Denmark is generating 140% of its needs from wind all the time. This is an ignorant view and shows he is way too far out of his depth to be deciding energy policy at this time.

Denmark is also unique in that it can easily import and export to Norway, who have large amounts of the most suitable back-up for wind, namely hydro.

The UK do not want our wind. They have said as much. 

And France will not want our wind either. Nuclear plants cannot be ramped up and down like hydro. So Ireland will have to dump all its excess wind. Ireland does not have access to a Nordic type back up system so why is the Minister making comparisons with Denmark at all ?

Maros Sefcovic, vice president of the European Commission in charge of energy union, also spoke about how the integration of Europe’s energy markets, billed as the biggest transformation since the pooling of coal and steel production in the 1950s, had been accelerated by the West’s increasingly fractious relationship with Russia, which supplies most of continent’s natural gas.

While Germany and Italy are dependent on Russian gas, Ireland get's its gas mostly from Norway and the Netherlands.