Saturday, 5 November 2016

Little Evidence for Wetter Winters

The researchers believe there is plenty of data to show we will also have a much stormier future. “We have seen the trends and they agree with the models,” Dr Murphy says. “All we have to do is look at the extremes – for example, the flooding from last year. It could be anything from 10 per cent to 40 per cent wetter in winter [Irish Times].”

 Scientific theories should always be based on long term evidence and data.  Stating that the flooding was bad last year is not science. In fact, it's the exact opposite of science. Yes, last winter was exceptionally wet. But only three of the past eight winters had above average rainfall i.e 37%. The conventional narrative is that winters are getting progressively wetter but in fact it's the opposite.   Almost two in three winters now in Ireland are drier than the long term average. This can all be checked on Met Eireann website  (although I notice that it's harder to find the archived reports than it used to be). 

So the great delusion goes on. We are all expected to join in and pay up. Dissenters are ostracized.  We have to spend millions to satisfy how some people feel because last winter was a bad winter. Just like 1930 was a bad winter. The difference is in the 1930s the authorities looked at dredging the rivers as the solution :

•    Winters in Ireland 2009-2015

•    Winter 2016


  1. The gaggle of academics who depend on funding into climate change has spread from Maynooth to the other colleges in Ireland. Lazy journos can always get a quote in reference to a mild winter/cold winter/stormy winter/wet winter - anyone of which "agrees with their models".

    Funnily enough from further down the article...

    "Dr Nolan’s study found that temperatures here would rise by between 1 and 1.6 degrees by 2050 , with higher temperatures in the east. Average night-time temperatures would rise and the number of frosty days would be cut in half. This in turn would lengthen the growing season by more than 35 days a year, he found. "

    First off, this "crisis" looks to be largely positive for Ireland. Secondly I wish people would get a grip and realize that models predict exactly what the person(s) who designs/configures the model wants them to predict.

    The term "may" should be used instead of "would" though (in fairness to Dick Ahlmstrom) at least this is not as bad as using "will" a-la Guardian.

  2. May I take the liberty to interrupt this blog tread to announce the Election of the 45th President of the United States of America. Against a totally biased media and corporate and new world order rump, he won conformably. No more payments by America into the black hole of Climate Change and therefore less reason to build stupid wind farms. Its a day to celebrate and I venture to say this Blog which has a high readership had influenced American voters to some extent.

    1. Dont know if I can claim any credit for his victory !

  3. There is no honest reporting in traditional media outlets and that includes a complete by passing of science which is replaced by junk science. Ireland is a island at the edge of a steaming ocean where the prevailing wind is from the south west. A few big mountains to help the vapour condense and we get rain. In face water vopour is a much greater greenhouse gas than co2.