Graham Neary has put together a graph of Swedish all cause mortality rates for 2020. It shows that their decision not to impose a lockdown did not lead to any significant increase in deaths.
I've plugged the actual 2020 result into my spreadsheets. Result: all-cause mortality is just 3% worse than 2018, and is better than all years prior to 2014. They won't acknowledge it. But this is not what the advocates of lockdown said would happen:
This does not mean that Swedes went about their lives as normal. Presumably, there were some people who felt safer staying at home most of the time or wearing a mask. It just means that the government did not impose restrictions on everyone. People could make their own decisions and civil liberties were protected. For example, the Swedish government encouraged people to work from home where possible.
Society does not ban smoking, it advises people that smoking is bad for them, and after that leaves it up to citizens to decide for themselves. The long term departure from this societal convention is worrying.
EuroMomo monitors excess mortalities for various countries in Europe and is showing in their data the All Cause mortalities for Ireland in 2020 to be within the normal range.
ReplyDeleteThere was a short sharp peak in April 2020 but this was preceded by and followed by a trough in mortalities.
Tánaiste Leo Vradakar confirmed that there were no excess mortalities in Ireland this winter 2020/2021 on 18th December 2020
https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-mortality-data-5305545-Dec2020/
‘Between weeks 40 and 52 2020, no excess all-cause mortality in all ages was reported in Ireland after correcting GRO data for reporting delays with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm.’
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/20202021season/Influenza_Surveillance_Report_Weeks%2052&53%202020_Finalv1.0_07012021.pdf
In December/January 2020 Ireland and Italy were no longer included in the EuroMomo data and all the mortality data for Ireland and Italy over the last 5 years had been removed from the website but has now been reinstated.
The mortality data for Ireland from November 2020 to date is in a trough, that is, there have been less deaths than normal.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
UN death rate projections for both Ireland and Italy show a serious upward trend in general based on the national demographics and the historical rates of increase in deaths have been far greater in the past compared to 2020.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/death-rate
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ITA/italy/death-rate
Covid 19 Science Update leaflet February 2020 from Ivor Cummins for distribution.
https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Covid-Information-Bulletin-December-2020.pdf
Sweden seems less enamoured with it's herd immunity strategy.
ReplyDeleteIt's new emergency lockdown law went into effect on Sunday, granting the government the power to impose coronavirus-related curbs for the first time. The measure comes nearly a year after the Nordic country ruled out the same strict public health measures that were implemented throughout the rest of Europe.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-swedens-new-covid-lockdown-law-takes-effect/a-56185101
Until now, the Swedish government has relied mostly on the public following official health recommendations voluntarily. But lawmakers passed the new pandemic law on Friday, allowing the government to "introduce special restrictions for both certain activities and places," according to a statement on the parliament's website.
It appears that that their decision open the door to a future lockdown is a consequence of a significant increase in deaths. Maybe, just maybe, the issue might not be as cut and dried as was first apparent?