Solving the Riddle of Zeno's Paradox

The ancient Greek Zeno posed a number of paradoxes on motion. In the dichotomy or the racetrack, Zeno argued that a runner will never reach the stationary goal line on a straight racetrack. The reason is that the runner must first reach half the distance to the goal, but when there he must still cross half the remaining distance to the goal, but having done that the runner must cover half of the new remainder, and so on. If the goal is one meter away, the runner must cover a distance of 1/2 meter, then 1/4 meter, then 1/8 meter, and so on ad infinitum. The runner cannot reach the final goal, says Zeno. There is also another version which states the inverse, namely that the runner cannot even take his first step because the first step can be infinitely divided up. 

Aristotle, in Physics, said of the Dichotomy that it is possible for a runner to come in contact with a potentially infinite number of things in a finite time provided the time intervals become shorter and shorter. Aristotle said Zeno assumed this was impossible, and that is one of his errors in the Dichotomy. However, it was not until the invention of calculus that a mathematical theory, which enabled the computation of the finite amount of time, could provide the detailed solution and it is calculus that provides the detailed Standard Solution to Zeno’s Paradox today. The sum of the series of path lengths or segments ½+¼+⅛+.... converges to 1 and not infinity. 

A far simpler solution could in fact have resolved the Paradox even without calculus. The runner is also composed of infinite units, so infinity divided by infinity equals 1. This means the runner does not have infinite space to run but has absolute space of equal parts in the same proportion to the runner’s sprint that sums to 1. At each point that his foot touches the ground, the same infinite units that Zeno recognises in the ground exist in the athlete’s foot and therefore the distance to be covered at each step is no longer Zeno’s infinitesimal decimal units but one unit. This allows the runner to complete the distance to the finish line within a certain amount of time depending on his sprint. Infinities are cancelled out by the existence of infinities within both the runner and the track. 

Infinity is the background noise to the universe, it is the commonality for everything. Zeno went wrong because he attributed infinitesimal qualities to only one part of matter and space and then set up a false Dichotomy. Because it is a commonality, the infinite quality of matter can be ignored, and what remains is the proportional relationship between objects and between objects and space i.e. ratios.

So the answer to Zeno’s Paradox is that infinity also lies within the athlete's foot. 

Amber Alert With More Generation ?

 Eirgrid warned this week of an Amber Alert due to high peak demand, a loss of a number of generators and low wind generation :

“There were a number of reasons that gave rise to Wednesday’s alert. Firstly, two of the three units at Moneypoint, the country’s largest power station, suffered technical failures and were not available. This resulted in the loss of 570 megawatts of electricity.

“Generation at Whitegate power station in Cork totalling 450 megawatts was also unavailable due to technical issues. A 243 megawatt generator at Tarbert power station was called up but could not respond due to technical problems. 

“The electricity market was set up for Ireland to export renewable energy via the two interconnectors (EWIC in the South and Moyle in the North) linking Ireland and GB.

“Following the issuing of the amber alert we were able to reverse the flows on the Moyle Interconnector and on EWIC shortly after that. There was also a drop in wind generation greater than was forecast prior to the alert being issued.

“There was no loss of electricity during the alert which ended by 6.20pm on [Wednesday],” the spokesman explained.

 Apparently the last time we hit such a demand was back in 2010 but there was no mention of an alert back then. In 2010 there was 1,405MW of wind installed on the grid. In 2019 this reached 4,235MW (+2.8 GW). The 500MW EWIC interconnector was commissioned in 2012. 

So the question has to be asked, how is it that with 3.3GW of additional generation equipment, we are now struggling to meet demand? 

 

Have A Green Green Christmas !

 Blackouts on the Way ?

Val Martin reports on what we predicted many years ago would happen as unreliable wind energy became a major energy source in the grid:

There are a number of unusual events occurring at the same time this winter :

• On the 10th December, peak demand exceeded that of 2010:

• Two peat power stations have been closed down by the Greens, a loss of 228MW
• Whitegate power station is offline due to a forced outage, a loss of 440MW
• Indaver waste to energy plant is offline due to a forced outage, a loss of 17MW
• The forced outage rates has increased every year for the past four years, which tends to support the theory that higher levels of wind energy leads to excessive cycling and ramping of generators which they were not designed for.
• Increased reliance on UK interconnectors, a country that has trouble itself with keeping the lights on.
• the all-island winter capacity margin has reduced every year over the past five years mainly due to increasing demand, dispatchable generation exiting the market and increasing generator forced outage rates. The capacity margin is the spare capacity available to meet peak demand. It is now at its lowest in recent times :

Source: Eirgrid Winter Outook

128% Increase in Oil Generation Last Year

 While there was much hullabaloo recently in the media about a 4.5% reduction in emissions last year, there was no mention at all about the reversal in the trend of oil generation.  Oil generation was  mostly phased out of electricity generation in the 2000s and replaced with efficient ccgt gas generation. However, 2019 saw a 128% rise in oil fired electricity generation, mainly due to Tarbert power station in Kerry which runs on heavy fuel oil. 

With Moneypoint coal power station running much less last year (almost 70% less),  the official story is that wind and gas were able to fill the gap left by the loss of Ireland's largest power station, but in truth Tarbert power station only 2km away across the River Shannon, was also important in keeping the lights on. 

Oil fired generators are fast acting, they can be switched on very quickly, but are less efficient and more polluting than modern gas power stations. This blog predicted many years ago, as did  experts like Pat Swords, that more wind energy would result in more fast acting generators such as oil to balance the grid. Hence, emissions savings from wind would be offset by increasing reliance on oil. 

The 128% figure comes from a new EPA report, page 11 :

https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/ghgprovemissions2019/EPA-Prov_GHG-Inventory-Report-1990-2019_final.pdf

Some Christmas Reading

 

Electricity in the USA is already half the price it is in the EU. Therefore, by 2050 in the EU, it is highly probable we just won’t have any viable jobs and disposable income left to spend, as it will have all gone to the energy bill to eliminate the fossil fuels currently forming 72% of the energy mix. 

Charles MacKay in his 1841 book ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’ pointed out: “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one”. How on earth did we get to this situation, in a so called intelligent modern society? Were laws broken? Is there something wrong with the weather or do we just have a political crisis with respect to incompetent management? If for example you are paying serious amount of hard earned money for pollution, which is not occurring, can you get your money back or is there going to be even more of the same? [Pat Swords - 2020]

Pat Swords has written a new book on energy and other related matters which can be downloaded for free here :

 The Polluter Pays, but to Whom, How Much and On What Basis – Science or the Cult of Witchcraft ? 

It takes a look at the EU's mad panic to reduce carbon emissions and the negative consequences of doing so without conducting a proper assessment. 

I have also written a book but not energy related, about motion and perception, which includes a collection of articles on Einstein, Descartes, Newton, Empiricism, Mathematics, Ancient Greeks and Galileo and attempts to solve some of the paradoxes of motion and perception that they presented. It will also be free and if you want a copy send me an email. 

"Wet Pubs" - Is There Evidence that Incidence Rates Rose in Counties where Pubs Reopened ?

 

 Counties where so-called "wet pubs" reopened at the end of September experienced an increase in the 14-day incidence rate of Covid-19 ten days later. A data analysis survey carried out by Ernst & Young (EY) and provided to Government stated that this increase was not seen to the same extent in Dublin, where wet pubs were not permitted to reopen. The report noted, however, that the reopening of pubs on 21 September - everywhere except the capital - also coincided with the opening of universities and specific sporting events.

 "Wet" Pubs in Dublin closed on the 21st September while in the rest of the country they remained open. What were the Covid incidence rates 10 days later ?

Source: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/15c67-the-covid-19-picture-in-your-county-over-the-last-2-weeks/

As you can see, Dublin had the third highest rates in the country, dropping from first place. This seems to be the sole reason for concluding that opening "wet pubs" results in higher incidence rates. But statistically speaking, there is no reason to draw this conclusion. Dublin rates are still increasing, as most counties are. 23 counties have lower rates than Dublin. If  almost 90% of counties still have lower rates than Dublin, 10 days after opening all of the pubs in Ireland except Dublin, then the problem is not "wet" pubs. 

What appears to be the case is that when "wet" pubs close, house parties increase, and with more people crowded into smaller spaces in the latter, the incidence rates rise faster. 

The evidence shows that "wet" pubs should be opened immediately. 

Covid-19 Nine Times Less Deadly during October

 

In this graph from the CSO we can see that the second covid wave was nine times less deadly than the first in March. 

In March, mortality rates were at 48 per 1,000 cases which reduced to 5 per 1,000 in October. 

The ICU rate was 27 per 1,000 in March reducing to 3 per 1,000 in October. 

So for both mortality and ICU rate, that's a reduction of nine times. 

In the six weeks up until the end of October, the number of deaths from Covid-19 was around 21 per week. That works out at about 1,092 deaths per year at that (lower than first wave) rate. Compared with the number of deaths from pneumonia and other respiratory diseases for the year 2019, that's 3.5 times less (total deaths from diseases of the respiratory system in 2019 was 3,807 or 73 per week).

Which means the pandemic is well and truly over.