Wednesday, 16 September 2015

Met Eireann recognise major impact of Atlantic on Ireland's climate

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) which relates to the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, explains over 90% of the pronounced decadal variation in annual land temperatures and summer precipitation- Met Eireann, 2015.

 This clearly shows that the AMO and mean annual land temperatures over Ireland are in phase i.e. when decadal averages are considered mean temperatures over Ireland are warmer when the North Atlantic ocean is warmer than average. Mean summer rainfall over Ireland is also correlated to the AMO, with drier summers on average when the AMO is in a negative phase. 

Understanding the impact of these ocean variations when interpreting long climate records, particularly in the context of a changing climate, is crucial.

So in general, when Ireland has warm temperatures, the AMO is in positive phase, and vice versa.

Heavy rains in summer are mostly driven by a positive AMO  and drier summers occur mostly during negative AMOs. Presumably, the hotter weather causes more evaporation over the oceans, and therefore, more rain.

This means that we should be seeing colder, drier weather in Ireland in the coming years as the AMO moves to it's negative phase. This should see an upsurge in demand for heating fuel and electricity and an impact on harvests.

The full article can be read here :

1 comment:

  1. We all know that clouds tend to empty more as they move towards the poles and in polar regions they empty as snow. If this snow falls on the sea it melts, if it falls on land, it lies on the land. Some may lie on ice coated sea water and be included as polar ice. Over the last 9,000 years, snow has been falling on Greenland and Antarctica, something like poring a pancake on a pan, it spreads out and enters the sea in glacial movement and calving. If there was no man made global warming before 1,700 BC, why did this ice not build up every year. If ice melting is a sign of warming, that means it could not have melted before 1,700. If there was no calving before 1,700 and no melting, where did all the snow which fell over 9,000 years go? The ice should surely by now by reaching above the atmosphere into space. Could it be that the calving and melting makes good TV just like the photograph of the Polar Bear stranded on a chunk of ice was a admitted to be a fake.