"A lie told often enough becomes the truth." - Vladimir Lenin
Morgan Kelly and Jim Power, 2007
Morgan Kelly and Brendan Keenan, 2008
Morgan Kelly was the man who rescued Irish economics, who pulled it out of the group-think abyss it had got itself into. If we can sum up in one phrase what made him different, it would probably be focused analysis on the right data.
The other two commentators / economists he went up against in the above videos were guilty of two crimes - firstly, analysis of the wrong data (in the case of Jim Power he spoke about Ireland being underdeveloped and the risk of multi-nationals pulling out and in the case of Brendan Keenan, not looking at any data at all or just falsified data) and secondly, an inability to see past the conventional view supported and spun by the invested interests of the time. The road to the truth is often a lonely road as I'm sure it was for Mr.Kelly back in 2007 and 2008.
The data that people should have focused on in 2007 was the loan books of the banks, what their exposure was to the construction sector, the prices of houses relative to other EU countries and crucially the true capitalization status of the banks. Mr.Kelly appeared to have done his own analysis on this data, independent of anyone else in the State.
I can remember back then that people were told that "we should not talk down the economy" as if an economy built on a confidence trick was something sustainable and worthwhile. Looking back now, it was clear this was the same kind of talk that a ponzi scheme conman would have used.
Surely there is a lesson here - if you haven't looked at the data behind an economic sector, then what have you based your opinion on ? It is also startling to look back now at how lies told by institutions in Ireland were simply lifted ad verbatim, and without question, by other institutions and commentators in the media until these lies eventually became the apparent truth, and accepted by society. Nobody went back to check the original source, except Mr.Kelly of course.
Today, we can see similar untruths being spun in relation to energy, a quite complicated subject that takes quite a bit of research and analysis of data to grasp a good understanding of.
But not just energy, it also happens on quite simpler subjects such as the EU and export figures, to name but two. Sadly, politics still takes precedence over education.
The parallels are frightening, bank are lending to an industry depending on subsidies (with no valuable product) through the life time of the loan. Local authorities have trebled rates on wind farms. We now pay rates through our electricity bills. 500,000 euros in Co. Cavan last year alone. We know wind does not work, so we can predict the ending and who will be forced to pay. However, I postulate that there is a crucial difference in the case of energy. Most of the crazy plans require planning permission and Environmental Impact Assessments. Planners paid lip service to this until campaigners put it up to them. It is becoming increasingly hard to get planning consent and the best brains and best money is now united to block it. There is a rural revolt and they are well organised and are all voters. Traditionally government placed unwanted infrastructure in the midst of the poor or among isolated communities with no clout. This infrastructure does not discriminate when selecting its host. The courts are full of judicial reviews and its growing. The Emlagh wind farm oral hearing in Meath took four weeks. The gloss is gone off this. If the Irish beat this menace, the image (selling parts of the country to themselves)they earned during the building/banking collapse will have to be reversed. The Irish could be the first race in history to halt an economic bubble before it matures and block it as it grows. Investment in education has lead to articles like the one above, with education, intelligence and the undoubted courage we campaigners have, there is still hope. After all it was the Irish who restored the enlightenment , literature, and a learning culture to Europe during the dark ages. I feel it does not matter whether we win or lose, we will fight and we can show this did not happen without that fight. When future generations ask how we let this ridiculous thing happen, we can account for our stewardship as today's custodians of our environment,
ReplyDeleteAn important lesson to all of us, and one that is incumbent upon all of us to disseminate in the public interest.
ReplyDeleteReaders of this blog have certainly had the opportunity to review wind-related data that is presented with copious references to source data. Dissemination is another thing; it is all too easy to chat within the comfort zone of like-minded people, and quite another to carry this truth out to the public who have been largely influenced by well-financed public relations representatives from the wind industry.
Morgan Kelly did indeed plough a lonely path, one that has been vindicated by the inevitable outcome his analysis provided. Public sentiment was swayed by "consensus economists", a breed that preferred to join the herd rather than put the effort into carrying out their own rigorous economic analysis. The price continues to be paid by ordinary citizens who mistakenly assumed that the consensus view could not be wrong.
The wind industry representatives have carefully painted an emotive consensus view of global climate change survival being compromised by selfish rural nimbys. This approach cleverly turns natural justice on its head by demonising the victims and promoting industrial interests as the new saviour. We have learned from this blog that the wind industry is a subsidy-milking sell-on scheme at all stages that cynically hides its huge profitability behind a screen of "public concern".
David Davis MP writes in today’s Yorkshire Post that a typical wind farm parent company provides a large loan to a specially created subsidiary and leaves it in control of operations. The subsidiary is left as a financial shell, with very few liquid assets and total liabilities greater than total assets making it impossible to bring litigation against it, simply because there is nothing to win. Even liquidating it would generate no cash.
This is scarcely the spirit of public concern that is espoused so eloquently by the promoters of wind farm development.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/mainstream-set-to-sell-north-sea-project-31405312.html if you cannot link to this, google "independent mainstream to sell north sea project." This article provides compelling evidence of the accuracy of the post by West Cork Wind above. The business model is to lull the locals with hype, job promises, bribes and spin in the hope they will not object. Use compliant planners to smooth out planning consent. Strike a deal with the grid operators, when just ready to start digging, sell for cash to the highest bidder and head off into the sunset to repeat the process. This is one of the indicators of an economic bubble happening right before our eyes
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