"in the five-year period 2012-2016, dairy cow numbers have increased by 22 per cent and corresponding milk production by 27 percent while emissions increased just 8 per cent, demonstrating a level of decoupling is occurring.”
Other agriculture emissions include methane and N2O from 6 million beef cattle, N2O from pigs and fertiliser; CO2 from liming fields, GHG from fishing industry, fossil fuel for tractors etc. so including those in the eight percent total increased emissions figure was obviously a mistake. In reality, dairy emissions increased at about the same rate as production. Emissions from agriculture are the largest single contributor to Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions.
This got me thinking, what would happen if agricultural emissions decreased? According to the climate changers, there would be less global warming so this would be a good thing. And what could drive emissions down ? If there was a fodder shortage, for example, then this would lead to a reduction in the cattle herd and a reduction in emissions. Extreme weather, in the form of a long period of frost or drought, would lead to such a fodder crisis. And what causes extreme weather ? Climate change / Global warming of course ! So if the climate is really becoming more extreme, then agriculture emissions should be falling - they should be self regulating without any need for Government herd or dairy quotas.
Sources & Sinks of CO2 – Ireland
ReplyDeleteAgriculture – Land Use – Forestry - Trees and hedgerows
The Land of Ireland and its many uses are both a source of CO2 and a CO2 sink
A source is an activity that releases CO2 into the atmosphere
A sink is an activity that removes CO2 from the atmosphere
Table 1 - gives the findings of the annual CO2 flows for three Irish sites that have been monitored over the period 2002 to 2008. For each of the five years of the study, the three sites absorbed CO2 (they were sinks for CO2). The peat land was a small sink for CO2 (annual average of -0.6 tons CO2 per hectare per year) while the two grasslands farms (Dripsey and Wexford) were sinks for CO2 (of annual average -2.6 tons CO2 per hectare per year and -4.8 tons CO2 per hectare per year respectively).
The Wexford grassland had a land cover of 100% grassland from 2002 to 2005 (inclusive) and for 2006 and 2007 had a mixed land cover (part grassland and part winter kale). The later land cover resulted in a significant reduction in the size of the CO2 sink (to -1.75 tons CO2 per hectare per year). The wet, impeded drainage gley soils at Dripsey are a robust sink for CO2 even under a wide inter-annual variability in rainfall. The free-draining soils in Wexford were also a significant sink for CO2.
Table 1: Measured CO2 tons CO2 per hectare per year at the three sites in Southern Ireland.
Site name Ecosystem Period CO2 flows Average tons CO2 sink
Glencar, Co. Kerry Blanket peatland 2002–2007 -0.2 to -0.9 Average -0.55
Dripsey, Co.Cork Grassland 2002–2007 -2.1 to -3.9 Average -3.00
Wexford Grassland 2003–2005 -4.2 to -5.8 Average -5.00
Wexford Grassland + kale 2006–2007 -1.3 to -2.2 Average -1.75
The following calculations are an estimate of the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere using only 50% the CO2 sink figures in Table 1 [example Forests absorb from 5 to-15 tons CO2 per hectare per year so say an average of 10 tons CO2 removed from the atmosphere so we used 5.0 tons in the calculation below and we used the same figure for the trees & hedgerows ] [ The two Grassland sites in Table 1 absorbs 4 tons CO2 on average we use 2 tons in calculation below] Very conservative calculations.
3.91 million ha in grazing silage hay…………………@ -2.0 tons / hectare ………..= -7.820 million ton CO2
0.35 million hectares in crops……………………………@ -0.85 tons / hectare……..= -0.298 million ton CO2
0.45 million hectares of on farm hedge rows @-5.0 ton /hectare………………- 2.25 million ton CO2
1.14 million hectares in mountain – hill…………….@ 0.00 ton / hectare…………= 0.000 million ton CO2
1.21 million hectares in peat bogs…………………….@ -0.30 ton / hectare………….= -0.363 million ton CO2
0.75 Million hectares Forestry…………………………..@- 5.0 ton / hectare…………… = -3.75 million ton CO2
Total tons CO2 absorbed by the land of Ireland _______ - 14.481 million tons CO2
Ireland total CO2 emissions for Agriculture is calculated at 18 million tons of CO2
Assessment of the tons of CO2 removed from the atmosphere -14.481 tons of CO2
Net emissions from Irish Agriculture & Forestry 3.52 million tons very conservative estimate
Three Comments – Counting CO2 it all depends on the way the figures are calculated and presented
ReplyDelete1 - Comparing emissions per country
Emissions are expressed as Kg CO2 per capita. This method has a major anomaly. Highly productive countries with low populations are unfairly penalised and lower productivity countries are unfairly benefited. Emissions should be expressed as Kg CO2 per unit of GDP. This would be more equitable as it would compare the volume of economic activity with the volume of emissions produced whereas at present the volume of emissions is compared to the population with no regard taken of the productivity of the population.
Figures extracted from the following report: Global CO2 emissions per 1000 dollar GDP for each country 1990-2015 and can be viewed at the following website http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=CO2ts_gdp1990-2015&sort=des9
Show Irelane as the 4th lowest producer of co2 in the EU
Yer when compared on a percapita basia we seem to be struggling neat the top of emitters as a country in the EU
2 - Production based accounting V Consumption based accounting
The present production based [PB] accounting for CO2 emissions is making a mockery of the sustainability principle in that it allows unlimited consumption of products with no responsibility for the CO2 content provided the goods are produced abroad and imported.
The EU is outsourcing or simply off-shoring its carbon emissions to China etc.
Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, countries are not responsible for carbon emissions consumed within their borders.
Embodied carbon imports are significant for many developed economies. Major developed economies are typically net importers of embodied carbon emissions. UK consumption emissions are 34% higher than production emissions: Germany (29%) higher, Japan (19%) higher and the USA (13%) higher.
In 1992, the UK imported an additional 7% emissions (net) embodied in trade; by 2004, this had grown to 34%. Net UK imports of emissions are projected to continue to grow to 73 – 96% of production emissions by 2025, the range depending on the carbon intensity of production in other countries, and the anticipated reduction in the UKs production emissions from 2004 to 2025. This will result in the UK potentially importing as much carbon as it produces at home by around 2025, making imported carbon a significant issue.
CO2 should be measures on a consumption
Get Mary Robinson to do a fee readings from her new Bible and all will be hunky dory.No need to worry about cattle farting methane and breathing out co2 .Sure the Roscommon lad would be saved over night by a few readings by the Blessed Mary.
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