BP data shows that oil, natural gas and coal will still be the dominant energy sources in the future even with rapid growth in renewables.
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| BP Data |
In transport, oil will comprise over 80% of the energy sources used by 2040.
The mission statement of the NTMA (National Treasury Management Agency) is to manage public assets and liabilities commercially and prudently. The fossil fuel divestment bill is at odds with this mission statement as it's purpose is to divest from the most profitable energy markets and from energy sources that will be in high demand for many more years to come. The NTMA do not seem to have carried out a commercial assessment of renewable sources like wind energy. Is it commercially viable or not ? The fact that many Irish wind energy companies are selling up and divesting from the wind energy business altogether might give you a clue.
I am concerned about something that is happening now, which I see in my own county, whereby people are objecting to everything. It is everywhere. Wind farms are objected to. We brought in new controls to keep turbines back from property boundaries, which is appropriate. There are objections to solar farms. People are creating fear and doubt and saying the craziest things about renewable energies that are clean and tested and have been for decades. It has to stop or we will never meet these targets. Events like what happened with the Apple data centre in Athenry cannot continue. People who object to a project because it is close to them are wrong in so doing.
It doesn't take too much research to learn that data centres will consume more fossil fuels and make it harder to meet our targets. But here we have somebody in government who believes the opposite. I was waiting for him to say the sun revolves around the earth next.
The fossil fuel divestment bill is a token gesture, will have zero impact on global emissions and will result in losses for the taxpayer.
The fossil fuel divestment bill is a token gesture, will have zero impact on global emissions and will result in losses for the taxpayer.
As we have discovered from accessing their accounts the vast majority of wind farms are making significant losses. Assertions by the IWEA that wind turbines have an economic life of 20 years. When most of these large multi megawatt wind turbines will not actually last 20 years. Shows how ridiculous this renewables mass hysteria is .(Observed in the Danish Data now not published any more). Makes the politicians who supported fossil fuel divestment and further investment in loss making renewables look like classic idiots.
ReplyDeleteIt is not only Michael D'Arcy - a brief look at the contributions on Kildare Street shows that it is the consensus view of the elected deputies that beliefs trump the facts that this blog has highlighted.
ReplyDeleteIn his recent essay on "Energy and Man" (http://euanmearns.com/energy-and-man-part-1/#more-22309), Euan Mearns makes the point that:
"Fossil fuels and to a lesser extent nuclear power created the developed world that most of us live in; they created society’s surpluses we know as savings, pensions and wealth; they created prosperity beyond the wildest dreams of 19th Century citizens; they have created health, longevity, security, well-being and comfort for billions.
It is true that this road to fabulous prosperity has come with costs mainly linked to population growth and environmental degradation that should not be ignored. And fossil fuels also provide the energy to conduct modern warfare.
But for today’s political classes to turn their backs on the primary source of succour for the Human Race is a hazardous course to set. This is not yet self evident or understood since, contrary to all the hype and propaganda, the world still runs on fossil fuels".
History shows us that societies fixated on ideology generally fail to improve the quality of life of their citizens. The former Soviet Union and China under Mao Tse Tung are examples of this.
The outcome of the Irish penchant for being "best in class" in issues of global warming has the potential to realise the exact opposite - a return to austerity on a permanent basis.
Germany is driving this at EU level and Ireland wants to be the best boy in the class by leading the world in green energy. Germany receives half of its gas from Russia via pipelines through the Czech Republic, Poland and the Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic Sea. It draws its remaining supplies from Norway, the Netherlands, the UK and Denmark, as well as 8% from domestic sources. Germany just signed a deal with the Russian Gazprom Company to build the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in an effort to replace dwindling supplies from the Netherlands and flat output from the rest. The reports put the amount to be paid by Germany to Russia at 9.2 billion Euros.
ReplyDeleteThis deal is with an country which Germany claims is its enemy due to its annexation of the Crimea and on which the EU imposed trade sanctions in regard to military hardware. Russia has reciprocated by banning Irish Beef imports. NATO members have agreed to increase expenditure by 33 billion dollars.So while Germany reinforces its investment in fossil fuel, Ireland does the opposite.
Normally a large sale of stock by a whole country would depress the share price, but it appears no other country is doing the same. In fact it very likely other EU countries will buy these shares, keeping the price stable.
Irish wind farm companies are in dire straights financially. There is currently 443 MW for sale. The only buyer is the state backed Greencoat Renewables which will probably get most of the 300 million raised in this sell off. Its a round about way of financing NAMA for wind mills as predicted by economist Colm McCarthy. Ireland has 158 members of parliament and 60 senators totaling 218. Its happening with their full connivance.
Val Martin is on the ball! Greencoat Renewables PLC is a newcomer that according to Solocheck was set up on 15th February 2017 with an address of Riverside One, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, which is a similar address to solicitors McCann FitzGerald. The company is described as a micro company with the principal activity being a holding company.
DeleteThe Greencoat Renewables PLC web site states that it is an investor in euro-denominated renewable energy infrastructure assets, and is focused on the acquisition and management of operating wind farms in Ireland which to date consist of five wind farms in the Republic of Ireland; Dromadda More, Killhills, Knockacummer, Lisdowney, and Tullynamoyle 2 – they have a combined capacity of 194MW.
Greencoat Renewables PLC is managed by Greencoat Capital which claims to be the UK’s largest sector-focused investor with over £2.0bn under management. The big attraction is that "Ireland has an EU obligation to ensure that 16 per cent of primary energy use is derived from renewable sources, expected to be largely from onshore wind, by 2020".
As you will guess, REFIT is never far from such luscious returns, and Greencoat enthuses that "Irish wind farms benefit from a 15 year inflation linked floor price under the REFIT regime, while allowing wind farms to capture prices above the floor. Currently there is c.2.8GW of operating Irish wind farms with, the Company expects, a further 1.5GW expected to be built under REFIT2 by 2020, with significant consolidation opportunities".
This means that Greencoat is able to target "annual risk adjusted returns of 7 to 8 per cent, net of expenses" (whoopee!). The Irish Strategic Infrastructure Fund and Allied Irish Banks, who funded the Company’s acquisition of the seed portfolio, have invested €91 million in aggregate in the company’s IPO and plan to be long-term holders of the stock, agreeing to lock-up restrictions of one year and a further 12 month orderly market arrangement.
So dear people, this is yet another reminder that the wealth transfer from the struggling taxpayer remains firmly in hand. First you pay your PAYE, then you pay the PSO from net income (double taxation?) and finally your government takes the lolly it has creamed and stuffs it into a UK investment fund that has been underwritten by you, the taxpayer.
And when it falls down, guess who will pay Humpty Dumpty's medical bills . . . to say nothing of the state pension which the NTMA is supposed to underpin and into which you have paid your PRSI contribution every month.
The Irish Times reports today that Greencoat has raised €111m in an oversubscribed share placing which will be used to refinance the company’s revolving credit facility, allowing the company to make acquisitions. Investors have purchased around 41pc of the company’s existing issued ordinary share capital prior to the placing.
DeleteGreencoat Renewables raised €270m in gross proceeds last year from its flotation, including €145m from investors and an additional €105m from AIB. Greencoat shares appear to be more attractive to the bailed-out AIB than providing home loans to desperate young couples.
Blogger Phil Chapman quotes economist Tom Sowell as saying “What socialism, fascism and other ideologies of the left have in common is an assumption that some very wise people — like themselves — need to take decisions out of the hands of lesser people, like the rest of us, and impose those decisions by government fiat. The left’s vision is not only a vision of the world, but also a vision of themselves, as superior beings pursuing superior ends.”
ReplyDeleteHe points out that to see the real agenda behind climate change, all you have to do is to listen to what the spokesmen say in unguarded moments, such as:
Christine Stewart, then Canadian Minister for the Environment (1998)
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony … climate change [provides] the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.”
Jacques Chirac, then President of France (2000)
“For the first time, humanity is instituting a genuine instrument (the Kyoto Protocol) of global governance…”
Ottmar Edenhofer, economist, a lead author of the IPCC AR4 (2010)
“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy… We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy.”
Christiana Figueres, then Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC (2015)
“The most difficult task we have given ourselves… is to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.”
No wonder that Trump has pulled out of US commitments on climate - bringing justice and equality in the world is not what the GOP is about. And if we are truthful, are we?
1) I note that the new government of the Canadian province of Ontario appears to be ending all green subsidies. Search under "Ontario government cancels 758 renewable energy contracts, says it will save millions".
ReplyDelete2) I have long claimed that energy policy and the demise of the UK steel industry brought the Brexit vote over the line to leave the EU. Half of the majority to leave (plus 1) would have kept Britain in. All anti wind campaigners go to vote. They blamed the EU for the policy. Of course there were other factors.
3) If this link does not work, https://renewablesnow.com/news/low-renewables-output-warm-weather-weigh-on-sse-in-fiscal-q1-620591/ try searching under "Low renewables output, warm weather weigh on SSE fiscal". SSE's income is well down for the 1st quarter of this year for the 3 months of April, May and June 2018. July was very calm so far. Wind output is currently at 121 MW, which is close to nothing. One full quarter of this year's expected income can be removed completely. The very best load factors anywhere in Ireland is 27% on best sites, so we can take away a quarter of that to give a factor this year of 27 X 75% = 20.25%. The running expenses for wind farms is very high and massive losses are unavoidable for all Irish wind farms this year. It would take very consistent high wind speeds for the rest of the year to improve things. The directors say the parent company will sustain these losses. I believe SSE is in trouble, they increased their charges recently, but its is not enough.
4) Meanwhile it is reported that the other Irish Electricity giant the ESB lost 18 million Euros last year. Add to this the attempt by Gaelectric, Coilte and Element Power to sell off 443 MW of wind farms and Brexit and we have a terrible mess looming on the horizon. History teaches us that every 20 years the Irish people create a lot of wealth and for the next 2 years their government take it away. I have checked Element Power's international financial position and it is frightening. Their exposure is for billions, not millions of Euros.
5) It was reported in the press that the Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar has threatened Britain that if they don't do his bidding on Brexit and its effects on Ireland, he will consider banning flights of British aircraft over Irish air space. Right now Irish electricity generation is being powered 70% by gas. In fact all gas comes from Britain. So if Britain decided to retaliate by turning off the gas, there would be no electricity at all.
reNEWS reports (http://renews.biz/111898/irish-to-agree-auction-plans/) that the Irish government is expected to approve a new renewable electricity support scheme next week as part of plans to add 4.5GW of new generation capacity by 2030. Energy Minister Denis Naughten will bring the auction-based system known as RESS to a cabinet meeting in Dublin on Tuesday, according to sources.
ReplyDeleteIf government ministers sign off on the proposal it will be sent to Brussels for state aid approval, which generally takes between six to nine months. A first auction is pencilled in for the second half of 2019, it is understood. Onshore and offshore wind as well as solar are expected to be eligible to participate, although it is not yet known if technology neutral or sector-specific rounds will be held.
The draft design for RESS was based on a Contracts for Difference auction model for renewable generators. A so-called floating feed-in premium paying the difference between the market and strike price is the favoured option to replace the current feed-in tariff, according to the final consultation.
Annual losses per 100 megawatt installed in decently situated relatively recently commissioned wind farms are in the region of €3m. Most wind farms are making significant losses. The capital cost of 4.5 GW will be in the region of €9.00 billion . Annual trading losses will be in the region of €1.35 billion . Let them live on the street.Ignore our housing problems. That is current government policy. The real kick in the teeth is use the old pension to fund it. Total insanity.
ReplyDelete